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Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:35 am
by 311neers
agentpaul001 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:30 am
JMU doing what it can against their remaining opponents. They moved up to #50 with this most recent win and could quite possibly be in the 40s~ of net by tournament time.
ESPN Bubble Watch does a decent enough job forecasting possible bids and JMU is sitting with a group of 20 looking at about 8 bids. If they win out they're probably right on that cut line.
No bad losses. They've essentially steamrolled everyone but us.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:13 am
by Bigdaddyg1
JMU is legit good and those are two great wins for us. I would really like to see us put a couple of 20+ point wins on a few of the remaining teams we play. I watched some of their game last night and they could go from up 10 to up 20 quickly.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:46 am
by hapapp
agentpaul001 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:30 am
JMU doing what it can against their remaining opponents. They moved up to #50 with this most recent win and could quite possibly be in the 40s~ of net by tournament time.
ESPN Bubble Watch does a decent enough job forecasting possible bids and JMU is sitting with a group of 20 looking at about 8 bids. If they win out they're probably right on that cut line.
They are reaching at large consideration. Playing the remainder of their season on the road gives them the opportunity to drop into the 40s, especially if they run up the score.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:50 am
by AppStFan1
hapapp wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:46 am
agentpaul001 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:30 am
JMU doing what it can against their remaining opponents. They moved up to #50 with this most recent win and could quite possibly be in the 40s~ of net by tournament time.
ESPN Bubble Watch does a decent enough job forecasting possible bids and JMU is sitting with a group of 20 looking at about 8 bids. If they win out they're probably right on that cut line.
They are reaching at large consideration. Playing the remainder of their season on the road gives them the opportunity to drop into the 40s, especially if they run up the score.
I would not be surprised. I am pulling for JMU to win out and their only remaining loss to be against us in the title game. I think it that happens we could see 2 bids for the first time.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:55 am
by NattyBumppo'sRevenge
Hard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:19 am
by Saint3333
Yeah I'm fine with JMU loses in the semis against Troy.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:51 am
by appgrad95&97
Given the new rules, can we make the NIT without 27 wins?
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:58 am
by appvette
NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:55 am
Hard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
We don't have to beat them 3 times... Just once (possibly). I know what you mean, but statistics don't show you're less likely to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. Probably the opposite.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:11 pm
by NattyBumppo'sRevenge
appvette wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:58 am
NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:55 am
Hard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
We don't have to beat them 3 times... Just once (possibly). I know what you mean, but statistics don't show you're less likely to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. Probably the opposite.
It is hard to beat a good team 3 times in a season. Not hard to beat a team like Coastal Carolina three times in a season. Your statistics just reference any team which in most cases would mean you have two wins over a team because that team is not good, but JMU is comparable to our team. How often has Duke or Carolina beat the other 3 times in the same season? And when it’s happened was one having a down year?
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:24 pm
by EastHallApp
NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:11 pm
appvette wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:58 am
NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:55 am
Hard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
We don't have to beat them 3 times... Just once (possibly). I know what you mean, but statistics don't show you're less likely to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. Probably the opposite.
It is hard to beat a good team 3 times in a season. Not hard to beat a team like Coastal Carolina three times in a season. Your statistics just reference any team which in most cases would mean you have two wins over a team because that team is not good, but JMU is comparable to our team. How often has Duke or Carolina beat the other 3 times in the same season? And when it’s happened was one having a down year?
I don't have the data in front of me, but I believe his point is accurate: When two teams are comparable, one of them having won the first two matchups does not make them less likely to win the third.
It IS hard to beat a good team three times, of course. But we've already done 2/3 of the work. Beating JMU a third time would be hard because they're good. But the fact that we've beaten them twice doesn't necessarily make it harder than it otherwise would be.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:08 pm
by proasu89
What’s in the past is in the past. JMU is damn good so that makes them hard to beat. I’m also fairly certain that they think App State is a tough team to beat.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:45 pm
by Bigdaddyg1
I would bet that it is very rare for two teams to meet 3 times in a season and when it does happen I'd also bet that most of the time they split the first two. That's been said for years but I'd have to see a whole bunch of examples to even put any stock in it. As mentioned above we already handled the 2 of a possible 3 part. I'd rather be on our end of the equation.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 5:20 pm
by NattyBumppo'sRevenge
EastHallApp wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 2:24 pm
NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 12:11 pm
appvette wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:58 am
NattyBumppo'sRevenge wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:55 am
Hard to beat a good team three times in a season. I don’t want any part of them in the championship game. I hope they lose in the semifinals. Our only shot is to win the tournament and hope they aren’t the ones standing in the way. On the flip side, if we beat them in the championship game, that might move us into a 11 seed?
We don't have to beat them 3 times... Just once (possibly). I know what you mean, but statistics don't show you're less likely to beat a team after you've beaten them twice. Probably the opposite.
It is hard to beat a good team 3 times in a season. Not hard to beat a team like Coastal Carolina three times in a season. Your statistics just reference any team which in most cases would mean you have two wins over a team because that team is not good, but JMU is comparable to our team. How often has Duke or Carolina beat the other 3 times in the same season? And when it’s happened was one having a down year?
I don't have the data in front of me, but I believe his point is accurate: When two teams are comparable, one of them having won the first two matchups does not make them less likely to win the third.
It IS hard to beat a good team three times, of course. But we've already done 2/3 of the work. Beating JMU a third time would be hard because they're good. But the fact that we've beaten them twice doesn't necessarily make it harder than it otherwise would be.
I’m not going to let something silly like factual data change my opinion on the matter.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:24 pm
by WVAPPeer
Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:45 pm
I would bet that it is very rare for two teams to meet 3 times in a season and when it does happen I'd also bet that most of the time they split the first two. That's been said for years but I'd have to see a whole bunch of examples to even put any stock in it. As mentioned above we already handled the 2 of a possible 3 part. I'd rather be on our end of the equation.
Clemson beat NCS 3 times last year and NCS got the bid and Clemson did not
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:52 pm
by Bigdaddyg1
WVAPPeer wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:24 pm
Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:45 pm
I would bet that it is very rare for two teams to meet 3 times in a season and when it does happen I'd also bet that most of the time they split the first two. That's been said for years but I'd have to see a whole bunch of examples to even put any stock in it. As mentioned above we already handled the 2 of a possible 3 part. I'd rather be on our end of the equation.
Clemson beat NCS 3 times last year and NCS got the bid and Clemson did not
And Joe Lunardi so eloquently stated that head to head doesn't matter
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:13 pm
by WVAPPeer
Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:52 pm
WVAPPeer wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 6:24 pm
Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 4:45 pm
I would bet that it is very rare for two teams to meet 3 times in a season and when it does happen I'd also bet that most of the time they split the first two. That's been said for years but I'd have to see a whole bunch of examples to even put any stock in it. As mentioned above we already handled the 2 of a possible 3 part. I'd rather be on our end of the equation.
Clemson beat NCS 3 times last year and NCS got the bid and Clemson did not
And Joe Lunardi so eloquently stated that head to head doesn't matter
Yes - and there is no way I can accept that head to head makes no difference - Lunardi has the best job in the country - he fills out brackets all year long and he never gets it 100 correct and no one really cares - honestly just about any of us could have his info and get all the final 68 maybe missing one or two -
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:11 pm
by Bigdaddyg1
Well I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:42 pm
by hapapp
Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:11 pm
Well I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?
Q4 win…
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Fri Feb 23, 2024 6:44 am
by Bigdaddyg1
hapapp wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:42 pm
Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:11 pm
Well I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?
Q4 win…
Yeah I was being a tad sarcastic. The remaining games won't boost us at all.
Re: JMU on bubble but not us?
Posted: Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:30 am
by hapapp
Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2024 6:44 am
hapapp wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:42 pm
Bigdaddyg1 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:11 pm
Well I guess a 15 point road win should be good for a 5 point drop in the NET. Who knows?
Q4 win…
Yeah I was being a tad sarcastic. The remaining games won't boost us at all.
With the win we dropped a spot to 75. Crazy system.