Bracketology

[diehardapp18]

Similar to how some of you twist yourselves into a pretzel figuring out which bowl game the football team will play in starting in week three of every football season, the last few days I've been checking bracketology religiously. There are the well known ones out there from Lunardi and Jerry Palm, but you can also find random dudes on the internet doing their own. Basically, if I see a bracketology I am going to click on it. Just so surreal seeing our name on these.

I think most people would prefer the first four games, and I would agree with that. While it does present a great opportunity to win a game with some extra exposure, losing that game would be kind of a buzzkill. But I'm telling myself that anything that happens from here on out won't have me bothered, this team has already given me four of the most exciting days in recent memory.

I have no idea how far into the resumes the committee will look on teams like us, and I'm obviously biased, but damn I think we shouldn't be in a first four game. I saw a tweet today and we have played a considerably tougher schedule than the other teams that could also be in the first four games. What will hurt is our number of losses (11) but we have also played more games than a lot of teams. Kind of wild we have played 28 games this year.

Furthermore, the Sun Belt is usually ranked anywhere in the 16-20 range when ranking all college basketball conferences. Not a juggernaut, but there are 32 conferences. Sun Belt is undoubtedly better than 10 of these other conferences minimum. Again, hopefully the committee takes this into consideration.

It could also really, REALLY help if the committee considered cover pauses during this crazy season. Take out the four games we played after our team was effected by COVID and our resume would have had us a 15 seed, maybe even a 14.

Enjoying the ride regardless of how it turns out, but I figured we could talk about different reports and things we see leading up to selection Sunday when we will learn our draw.

The best projection I've seen so far came from Andy Katz, who had us a 15 seed playing Alabama.

[diehardapp18]

I also meant to add, it could still help if some teams that could be ranked higher than us lose this conference tournaments. Nicholls State and Prairie View A&M immediately come to mind.

[BUTCH1991]

Won't be playing A&T, they're now out with COVID

[diehardapp18]

Won't be playing A&T, they're now out with COVID

I'm kind of assuming whoever wins the MEAC is a shoe in for the first four. I guess I could be wrong on this. I reaaallllyyyy think Mount St. Mary's is destined for the first four as well. Leaving two more spots.

[EastHallApp]

They will not and should not discount or de-emphasize games played after a COVID pause.

Our NET ranking, at last glance anyway, was a little below 200. That one number alone isn't the be-all end-all, but it's at least a starting point. Going to be tough to put us ahead of many teams with that number, though as you say, upsets elsewhere could change that.

[diehardapp18]

They will not and should not discount or de-emphasize games played after a COVID pause.

Our NET ranking, at last glance anyway, was a little below 200. That one number alone isn't the be-all end-all, but it's at least a starting point. Going to be tough to put us ahead of many teams with that number, though as you say, upsets elsewhere could change that.

That was much more of a minor point. I agree that won't matter in discussions, but what should matter is our much more difficult strength of schedule and the conference that we came from.

[spacemonkey]

They will not and should not discount or de-emphasize games played after a COVID pause.

Our NET ranking, at last glance anyway, was a little below 200. That one number alone isn't the be-all end-all, but it's at least a starting point. Going to be tough to put us ahead of many teams with that number, though as you say, upsets elsewhere could change that.

Not trying to argue and truly don't know the answer to this question but does the NET ranking update daily or weekly. Will our 4 game winning streak with wins over #1 seed West Texas St. and #1 seed East Georgia St. not give us a boost in the NET ranking.

[hapapp]

They will not and should not discount or de-emphasize games played after a COVID pause.

Our NET ranking, at last glance anyway, was a little below 200. That one number alone isn't the be-all end-all, but it's at least a starting point. Going to be tough to put us ahead of many teams with that number, though as you say, upsets elsewhere could change that.

Not trying to argue and truly don't know the answer to this question but does the NET ranking update daily or weekly. Will our 4 game winning streak with wins over #1 seed West Texas St. and #1 seed East Georgia St. not give us a boost in the NET ranking.

Pretty sure it's updated daily.

[EastHallApp]

They will not and should not discount or de-emphasize games played after a COVID pause.

Our NET ranking, at last glance anyway, was a little below 200. That one number alone isn't the be-all end-all, but it's at least a starting point. Going to be tough to put us ahead of many teams with that number, though as you say, upsets elsewhere could change that.

Not trying to argue and truly don't know the answer to this question but does the NET ranking update daily or weekly. Will our 4 game winning streak with wins over #1 seed West Texas St. and #1 seed East Georgia St. not give us a boost in the NET ranking.

Yeah, it's updated daily. I would think we'd have gotten a little boost too. Problem is those two teams + Coastal are themselves ranked 127, 154 and 155, so they probably didn't help as much as we'd have liked.

[bigdaddyg]

I know it’s been debated a bit on the goin dancing thread about the playin game versus straight to (probably) a 16 seed. I guess you can go either way and it doesn’t really matter but I tend to think it’s better to not be in that playin deal. If you lose, to me, you really never made the dance. If you lose that game against what is really a comparable opponent did you really deserve to be in? Don’t get me wrong I’m ecstatic about what we did last week and can’t wait to hear our name Sunday. I’ve followed some of the results and I tend to agree that pauses should be taken into account. I just saw that Colgate is projected as a 14. They played 12 games and basically against 3 teams. How on earth can they even have a valid ranking?

Maybe the flip side of playing early is that we get to see at least one more competitive game with our guys. I am reminded of the UT game where it was a struggle to even get off a shot. I’d hate to see a 50 point blowout against Gonzaga. Oh well just do it!

[huskie3]

I still like the APP - Michigan matchup idea. Can you image how that will be in their heads, whether it is ‘ole hell, not again’ or the pressure to crush us? You know that will get lots of media attention.

[diehardapp18]

Friday morning, further research which will have me calling conspiracy. I am going to post some bits I found from App State Mania, App's 24/7 website.

Recent Sun Belt Champion Seedings:
2016: Little Rock (29-4) #12 seed
2017: Troy (22-14) #15 seed
2018: Georgia State (24-10) #15 seed
2019: Georgia State (24-9) #14 Seed

If there is one team we are comparable to on here, it is Troy. That 2017 Troy team went on a similar run in the conference tournament that really no one saw coming. Yet they still got a 15 seed, nowhere close to a first four. I'm not going to go back and look at the field from that year, but it's at least interesting.

Also this:

"One key guidance mechanism is the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) ranking system. As described, “The NET has two components; the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors the result, the game location and outcome. The other component is net efficiency (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), which is adjusted to account for the strength of the opponent and the location of the game.”

As this week’s conference tournament schedule continues to progress, we’ll assess the latest results and update daily NET ranking adjustments for how they may bear upon App State’s placement in next week’s NCAA Tournament."

Source: https://247sports.com/college/appalachi ... 162113356/

Current NET ranking of automatic qualifiers:
Appalachian State (#211)
Liberty (#82)
Winthrop (#54)
Drexel (#134)
Cleveland State (#160)
Loyola Chicago (#10)
Mount St. Mary's (#157)
Morehead State (#121)
UNCG (#85)
Oral Roberts (#156)
Gonzaga (#1)

Yeah... if this is what the committee is using no way we avoid the first four lol. But here is my beef... how the F*** are these NET rankings determined? Let's take Mt. Saint Mary's for example. They have a 12-10 record against the #306 strength of schedule in the country. We have 17-11 against the #229 strength of schedule in the country. That alone has me baffled, this team is 50+ spots better than us? Really hard to argue though that any other team on that list will probably be ranked higher than us, and they should.

Conferences still playing:
American East: UMAss Lowell (#208 NET) plays Hartford (#168) on Saturday in the championship game. No questions about it, a UMass Lowell win would be huge for App.

Big Sky Semifinals:
Southern Utah (#116) vs Montana State (#229)
Eastern Washington (#122) vs Montana (#207)
An all-Montana would be massive, if either of them ends up winning the conference it would be huge. But that seems unlikely.

MAAC Semifinals:
Iona (#144) vs Marist (#230)
Saint Peters (#176) vs Fairfield (#276)
A Fairfield vs Marist championship would be huge, or if just one of them pulls it out it would be an enormous boost. Again though, seems unlikely.

Southland Semifinals:
Nicholls St (#180) vs Northwestern State (#310)
Abilene Christian (#84) vs Lamar (#304)
Again, do the math here. We are cheering for Northwestern State and Lamar. If one of them won this tournament it would be huge.

SWAC:
Prairie View A&M (#197) vs Grambling State (#298)
Texas Southern (#224) vs Jackson State (#252)
Anyone besides Prairie View here would be huge. I'll also add, if we do get the play in game I would feel confident playing whichever team comes from this conference.


Again, I am very curious as to how these NET rankings are made. But this might paint a clearer picture for some.

[Neer86]

nice post. looks like we'll need some help to avoid the first 4, but there's a chance.

[bigdaddyg]

Gut prediction- tournament will get pushed back/paused at least a week to allow teams a chance to isolate then move to the bubble. Heard Kansas is out now.

[agentpaul001]

I imagine a least one if not more upsets materialize out of those conference tournaments. We probably need two and perhaps more for the team not to land right in a playin game. The Net Rankings are kind of wonky, but even KenPom that's pretty well respects doesn't have us far off at all.

Tennessee winning a game or two can help slightly, but at this point some upsets in those conference tournaments would bode well.

I don't anticipate March Madness dates moving at all even with the positive tests. In retrospect I think NCAA should've tried and end the conference tournaments a day or two earlier to allow for more time to clear testing, but alas I think what's done is done. Allowing teams to field as few as five players is also clearly a move to help the games get played. I guess if covid has shown us anything, it's that anything is possible.

[T-Dog]

Gut prediction- tournament will get pushed back/paused at least a week to allow teams a chance to isolate then move to the bubble. Heard Kansas is out now.

It should have been pushed back from the start. TV would have followed along this year.

Teams are arriving in the NCCA Bubble in less than 24 hours. I feel the tournament is starting on Tuesday unless a bunch more teams have positive COVID-19 cases.

[hapapp]

First games are Thursday.

[WVAPPeer]

Usually 2 "first round" games on Tue and 2 on Wed - 64 starts on Thu

[diehardapp18]

Usually 2 "first round" games on Tue and 2 on Wed - 64 starts on Thu

Not this year.

[WVAPPeer]

How is it set up?