MBB vs Ga Southern, 6:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, Jan. 25 of the 2024th year of the Common Era, Wear Black, not as cold

[Saint3333]

Where are these “doom and gloom” posts?

Let me get out my jump to conclusions mat for this next round.

Beat JMU.

[Bootsy]

So it's "doom and gloom" to be concerned about App's struggles at the Free Throw line? Ummm...OK.

This team is the best overt chance App has had to win a conference title and possibly put together a nice little run in the NCAAs. As I wrote in my original post, App is likely to face some tight games and that's why some of us are concerned about FT%.

[BambooRdApp]

I did not research that deeply. I was just trying to get a B haha. My point was that free throw % and win probability don’t correlate as much as many people think.

Check this out: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1

GA State is the best free throw shooting team in the Sun Belt, but that obviously hasn’t led to more wins for them. There’s no overlap between the top 10 ranked college teams and the top 25 best free throw shooting teams.

Bs get degrees. That was a great topic for a freshman speech class. I wasn’t trying to criticize your research and take on the subject, quite the opposite. It made me think a little more deeply. A missed free throw opens the opportunity for the offense to score more points. I would imagine, however, that the analytics suggest the defense rebounds more missed free throws than the offense. With that being the case, I’ll always root for better free throw percentage. Score as many points as you can with the clock not running. I am the product of a basketball coaching father and spent a lot of time practicing them. It’s hard to let that go.

I coached for a while too, and we practiced the hell out of free throws, but we practiced rebounding, shooting, defensive switches, screens, etc. far more.
The only point I’m trying to make is that, if you made a list of important stats for winning basketball games ranked by importance, free throws wouldn’t be as high as some think.
Free throw shooting is absolutely a weakness for this App team, but as someone has pointed out, it’s really only cost one game so far, and there’s no actual proof that it will cost games in the future.

I’ll add, free throw shooting is a weakness, but I think shot selection throughout the game is a bigger flaw in App’s game this year. Every game I’ve watched the team goes through these scoring droughts because they seem to get impatient and just throw garbage shots at the rim from wherever. First look is rarely the best look.

This line is funny.."there’s no actual proof that it will cost games in the future."
Hmm, if I knew the outcomes of games that yet to be played...I am moving to Vegas and becoming a multi -trillionaire

THAT IS EXACTLY MY POINT!!!!!!
So much doom and gloom from some posters over something we have no idea will actually happen!

I think this better explains my opinion: free throw shooting is like batting average in baseball. Most good teams shoot free throws well just like most good baseball players have a good batting average, but not always!!!!
Some baseball players have a mediocre batting average but compensate by hitting a lot of home runs and/or playing great defense. Same with basketball players and FT. I’ll take a basketball player with handles, great shooting, and solid defense who can’t hit a FT over some guy who’s great at FT but doesn’t play defense or won’t rebound.

How many great shooters in bball history were also poor FTs? I would assume not a high ratio. Most great shooters are pretty good free throw shooters. We are not a great FG% team. Our D has kept us in games. So, the baseball analogy is not very relevant... because we are in upper echelon of either stat.
There is no doom and gloom in my opinion...just people wishing we were better at FT shooting team. At some point, given the tournaments are one and done..we may wish we had made more "freebies"... because that is what they are.

[hapapp]

I did not research that deeply. I was just trying to get a B haha. My point was that free throw % and win probability don’t correlate as much as many people think.

Check this out: https://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1

GA State is the best free throw shooting team in the Sun Belt, but that obviously hasn’t led to more wins for them. There’s no overlap between the top 10 ranked college teams and the top 25 best free throw shooting teams.

Bs get degrees. That was a great topic for a freshman speech class. I wasn’t trying to criticize your research and take on the subject, quite the opposite. It made me think a little more deeply. A missed free throw opens the opportunity for the offense to score more points. I would imagine, however, that the analytics suggest the defense rebounds more missed free throws than the offense. With that being the case, I’ll always root for better free throw percentage. Score as many points as you can with the clock not running. I am the product of a basketball coaching father and spent a lot of time practicing them. It’s hard to let that go.

I coached for a while too, and we practiced the hell out of free throws, but we practiced rebounding, shooting, defensive switches, screens, etc. far more.
The only point I’m trying to make is that, if you made a list of important stats for winning basketball games ranked by importance, free throws wouldn’t be as high as some think.
Free throw shooting is absolutely a weakness for this App team, but as someone has pointed out, it’s really only cost one game so far, and there’s no actual proof that it will cost games in the future.

I’ll add, free throw shooting is a weakness, but I think shot selection throughout the game is a bigger flaw in App’s game this year. Every game I’ve watched the team goes through these scoring droughts because they seem to get impatient and just throw garbage shots at the rim from wherever. First look is rarely the best look.

This line is funny.."there’s no actual proof that it will cost games in the future."
Hmm, if I knew the outcomes of games that yet to be played...I am moving to Vegas and becoming a multi -trillionaire

THAT IS EXACTLY MY POINT!!!!!!
So much doom and gloom from some posters over something we have no idea will actually happen!

I think this better explains my opinion: free throw shooting is like batting average in baseball. Most good teams shoot free throws well just like most good baseball players have a good batting average, but not always!!!!
Some baseball players have a mediocre batting average but compensate by hitting a lot of home runs and/or playing great defense. Same with basketball players and FT. I’ll take a basketball player with handles, great shooting, and solid defense who can’t hit a FT over some guy who’s great at FT but doesn’t play defense or won’t rebound.

That's fair. No doubt we are willing to live with Abson's poor FT shooting. Its a fair trade given what else he brings. FT shooting is obvious because it isolates on the player taking them. But, it still doesn't diminish the concern that we struggle there.

[AppStFan1]

Where are these “doom and gloom” posts?

Let me get out my jump to conclusions mat for this next round.

Beat JMU.

I don't see it as doom and gloom but just mentioning our weakness. If we shoot well then we could win the Sun Belt and probably win a couple games in the NCAA Tournament but if we don't then we could end up in the NIT. With our length and talent I feel like there is not a game we should lose the rest of the way if we actually shoot well from the free throw line. Hopefully we shoot better from it today because there is a good chance we will need to.

[Bigdaddyg1]

I broke it down into average FT's we take per game versus what we make. We are at about 12 for 20. If we raise our percentage to 75% we would be right around 100th in the country and that equates to 3 more points per game. I don't think any of us are saying it's not an important aspect of the game. My argument is that poor FT shooting doesn't necessarily "cost us a game". Those 4 minute shooting droughts or bad turnovers converted into points by the opponent are way worse than the 3 points we leave at the line. It's ridiculous to think we should be shooting 100%. Those who harp on this stat must not realize that your talking 3-4 points a game. Every other stat would need to be equal in order to say this one costs a game. If on those 8 misses the opponent gets zero points it's a wash.

[appgrad95&97]

The difference between this year's teams and the past Kerns teams is how much better the offense looks. FTs will bite us in the a$$ at some point. But given the way we score this year, I can look past the FT issues.

[spacemonkey]

We have enough good free throw shooters to finish out a game. Huntley, Donovan, Mantis, Harcum and Tate can all shoot free throws. I think Marshall can too.

We are going to be fine.

It is a three point shooting contest now days. Teams making 3s will advance...teams cold from 3s are going home. Our defense keeps us in games when we go cold, but a hot team (UncAshville) are tough to beat no matter how good you play defense or shoot free throws. In my opinion this is why March Madness is so good. Cinderella can get hot.

[AppStFan1]

We have enough good free throw shooters to finish out a game. Huntley, Donovan, Mantis, Harcum and Tate can all shoot free throws. I think Marshall can too.

We are going to be fine.

It is a three point shooting contest now days. Teams making 3s will advance...teams cold from 3s are going home. Our defense keeps us in games when we go cold, but a hot team (UncAshville) are tough to beat no matter how good you play defense or shoot free throws. In my opinion this is why March Madness is so good. Cinderella can get hot.

Keep in mind what happened against Asheville though. That game was rough and that is my one worry if we are not hot while the other team is hot from 3 and we are inconsistent at the free throw line then a loss like that can happen again.

We definitely have some good FT shooters but we have to make sure they get to the line. I am sure opponents will game plan to send players like Abson to the line. We are inconsistent with 3s sometimes but if we have 3-4 hot hands then we can do damage as long as the right players get fouled. If we shoot well then we do have the talent and length to be a Cinderella to watch.

[AppOrange]

You can probably look at other teams who are similar to us and point to aspects of their team that have prevented wins. Some might not be as good as we are on defense. How about our shot blocking which leads to extra possessions? It's almost like guys who hyper focus on the football run defense. Wins are wins. I comment about our FT shooting as well but we are 16-4 and 7-1 in the Belt. If not for those other parts of our game- defense and shot blocking do we win all of those games? Way too much focus on what is really a minor problem because you are really only talking 4 or so points per game.

Good points until the end, it’s not just 4 pts, and is a basic fundamental point of the game that needs to be better. Smart coaches will easily take advantage of this if they have the balls.

[MrCraig]

I broke it down into average FT's we take per game versus what we make. We are at about 12 for 20. If we raise our percentage to 75% we would be right around 100th in the country and that equates to 3 more points per game. I don't think any of us are saying it's not an important aspect of the game. My argument is that poor FT shooting doesn't necessarily "cost us a game". Those 4 minute shooting droughts or bad turnovers converted into points by the opponent are way worse than the 3 points we leave at the line. It's ridiculous to think we should be shooting 100%. Those who harp on this stat must not realize that your talking 3-4 points a game. Every other stat would need to be equal in order to say this one costs a game. If on those 8 misses the opponent gets zero points it's a wash.

Thank you. That’s what I’ve been trying to point out.
And people saying “our free throw shooting needs improvement” aren’t the doom-and-groomers I’m talking about. I’m talking about the posters repeating “missed free throws WILL cost us a game,” when that isn’t necessarily true.

[hapapp]

We have enough good free throw shooters to finish out a game. Huntley, Donovan, Mantis, Harcum and Tate can all shoot free throws. I think Marshall can too.

We are going to be fine.

It is a three point shooting contest now days. Teams making 3s will advance...teams cold from 3s are going home. Our defense keeps us in games when we go cold, but a hot team (UncAshville) are tough to beat no matter how good you play defense or shoot free throws. In my opinion this is why March Madness is so good. Cinderella can get hot.

Certainly, Gregory, Harcum, and Tate are the guys we want at the line to close out a game. Huntley shoots about 65% (don't know what he does in the clutch). Mantis is 1 for 4 from the line this year. Because he shoots from distance, he doesn't get to the line that often.

[App_in_Maiden]

I broke it down into average FT's we take per game versus what we make. We are at about 12 for 20. If we raise our percentage to 75% we would be right around 100th in the country and that equates to 3 more points per game. I don't think any of us are saying it's not an important aspect of the game. My argument is that poor FT shooting doesn't necessarily "cost us a game". Those 4 minute shooting droughts or bad turnovers converted into points by the opponent are way worse than the 3 points we leave at the line. It's ridiculous to think we should be shooting 100%. Those who harp on this stat must not realize that your talking 3-4 points a game. Every other stat would need to be equal in order to say this one costs a game. If on those 8 misses the opponent gets zero points it's a wash.

Thank you. That’s what I’ve been trying to point out.
And people saying “our free throw shooting needs improvement” aren’t the doom-and-groomers I’m talking about. I’m talking about the posters repeating “missed free throws WILL cost us a game,” when that isn’t necessarily true.

I said what I said. Not sure how I’m “doom and gloom” because I’ve watched enough college basketball over the years to know that eventually, especially if this team does what I think they can and make the tournament, will lose games if we aren’t hitting more of our free throws. You are correct, it’s not necessarily true that we will lose because of them, but it’s not necessarily false either.

I don’t have this unrealistic expectation that we should be 100% or even in the 90s, but there will be games that will come down to can you hit them when they matter/how many did you leave up there. I pointed out that this weakness of ours could be an issue down the road.

[AppStFan1]

I broke it down into average FT's we take per game versus what we make. We are at about 12 for 20. If we raise our percentage to 75% we would be right around 100th in the country and that equates to 3 more points per game. I don't think any of us are saying it's not an important aspect of the game. My argument is that poor FT shooting doesn't necessarily "cost us a game". Those 4 minute shooting droughts or bad turnovers converted into points by the opponent are way worse than the 3 points we leave at the line. It's ridiculous to think we should be shooting 100%. Those who harp on this stat must not realize that your talking 3-4 points a game. Every other stat would need to be equal in order to say this one costs a game. If on those 8 misses the opponent gets zero points it's a wash.

Thank you. That’s what I’ve been trying to point out.
And people saying “our free throw shooting needs improvement” aren’t the doom-and-groomers I’m talking about. I’m talking about the posters repeating “missed free throws WILL cost us a game,” when that isn’t necessarily true.

I said what I said. Not sure how I’m “doom and gloom” because I’ve watched enough college basketball over the years to know that eventually, especially if this team does what I think they can and make the tournament, will lose games if we aren’t hitting more of our free throws. You are correct, it’s not necessarily true that we will lose because of them, but it’s not necessarily false either.

I don’t have this unrealistic expectation that we should be 100% or even in the 90s, but there will be games that will come down to can you hit them when they matter/how many did you leave up there. I pointed out that this weakness of ours could be an issue down the road.

Agreed. While we could lose for another issue the free throws are certainly a glaring one that can hurt. We have a deep team with speed, athleticism, length, and I would even bet a few of these guys will play pro ball somewhere but poor FT shooting will hurt in close games. If you are up by 5 with a minute left and hit your FT shots you can put the game away but if we miss shots then a couple 3s by the other team can give them the win.