If you build it, they will come

[appdaze]

We are getting top 25 votes. We are good enough to win the next ten, but I’m guessing we may stumble once or twice along the way. But suppose we do win the next 9-10 games. We’d be 27-4 after getting votes at 17-4. If we are in the top 25 heading into the tournament but lose in the championship to a 28-3 JMU (we won’t), you’d think it would be hard to leave us out

Nah, they wouldn't bat an eye at leaving us out without the chip

[Bigdaddyg1]

Obviously you can't take anyone for granted and road games can be tough but we only have 1 game left against a team with a winning record- Marsha is 11 and 11. If by some chance we run the rest of the table does our NET actually drop? Would it help if Auburn and Oregon State kept winning or does it really matter?

[hapapp]

Obviously you can't take anyone for granted and road games can be tough but we only have 1 game left against a team with a winning record- Marsha is 11 and 11. If by some chance we run the rest of the table does our NET actually drop? Would it help if Auburn and Oregon State kept winning or does it really matter?

Well, beating JMU didn't seem to help our NET. So, it would seem regardless of what we do the rest of the way, it won't matter much.

I copied this from the NCAA page describing NET: The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

[AppinVA]

Obviously you can't take anyone for granted and road games can be tough but we only have 1 game left against a team with a winning record- Marsha is 11 and 11. If by some chance we run the rest of the table does our NET actually drop? Would it help if Auburn and Oregon State kept winning or does it really matter?

Well, beating JMU didn't seem to help our NET. So, it would seem regardless of what we do the rest of the way, it won't matter much.

I copied this from the NCAA page describing NET: The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

To quote another baseball movie aside from the thread title..."Well, I guess there's only one thing left to do."

[BeauFoster]

Obviously you can't take anyone for granted and road games can be tough but we only have 1 game left against a team with a winning record- Marsha is 11 and 11. If by some chance we run the rest of the table does our NET actually drop? Would it help if Auburn and Oregon State kept winning or does it really matter?

Well, beating JMU didn't seem to help our NET. So, it would seem regardless of what we do the rest of the way, it won't matter much.

I copied this from the NCAA page describing NET: The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

To quote another baseball movie aside from the thread title..."Well, I guess there's only one thing left to do."

Are you suggesting a life size Everts poster with stickers that can be removed, revealing naked body? Because that’s what I think you’re suggesting.

[AppinVA]

Obviously you can't take anyone for granted and road games can be tough but we only have 1 game left against a team with a winning record- Marsha is 11 and 11. If by some chance we run the rest of the table does our NET actually drop? Would it help if Auburn and Oregon State kept winning or does it really matter?

Well, beating JMU didn't seem to help our NET. So, it would seem regardless of what we do the rest of the way, it won't matter much.

I copied this from the NCAA page describing NET: The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

To quote another baseball movie aside from the thread title..."Well, I guess there's only one thing left to do."

Are you suggesting a life size Everts poster with stickers that can be removed, revealing naked body? Because that’s what I think you’re suggesting.

What's WRONG with you? To quote another of my favorite movies, "She must have been something before electricity."

[agentpaul001]

Obviously you can't take anyone for granted and road games can be tough but we only have 1 game left against a team with a winning record- Marsha is 11 and 11. If by some chance we run the rest of the table does our NET actually drop? Would it help if Auburn and Oregon State kept winning or does it really matter?

Well, beating JMU didn't seem to help our NET. So, it would seem regardless of what we do the rest of the way, it won't matter much.

I copied this from the NCAA page describing NET: The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

To quote another baseball movie aside from the thread title..."Well, I guess there's only one thing left to do."

I hadn't realized the NET model was changed to no longer account for scoring margin. KenPom is generally fairly close to the NET ranking (App actually higher in Net) and has the team dropping two more conference games. So if App wins out they'd be playing above the #77 they're at now. No idea where that lands the team, but it would be higher then today all things even.

[Bigdaddyg1]

Obviously you can't take anyone for granted and road games can be tough but we only have 1 game left against a team with a winning record- Marsha is 11 and 11. If by some chance we run the rest of the table does our NET actually drop? Would it help if Auburn and Oregon State kept winning or does it really matter?

Well, beating JMU didn't seem to help our NET. So, it would seem regardless of what we do the rest of the way, it won't matter much.

I copied this from the NCAA page describing NET: The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

To quote another baseball movie aside from the thread title..."Well, I guess there's only one thing left to do."

I hadn't realized the NET model was changed to no longer account for scoring margin. KenPom is generally fairly close to the NET ranking (App actually higher in Net) and has the team dropping two more conference games. So if App wins out they'd be playing above the #77 they're at now. No idea where that lands the team, but it would be higher then today all things even.

It would help the rankings if we maybe had Troy again but we will probably still drop in the NET even winning out as everyone we play is below us now. That's what kills the chances of really good mid major teams. The committee would rather justify a 19-12 team who finished 6th in the Big12 over a 26-5 team like App who (hopefully) won their league regular season title. Then that 19-12 team gets beat on the first day and is forgotten.

[APPdiesel]

That’s also why we play the SB-MAC challenge…to try to flex in good matchups late in the season. It just so happens that we as NET #2 in the conference get the MAC’s NET #2 Toledo who’s way below us (124) who count as a Q3 matchup.

If we were SB NET #1 we’d be playing Akron (88) which despite all the grumbling would still count as a Q3 matchup at home.

[Bigdaddyg1]

How do the quad wins work? For example we beat Auburn so do they need to remain in quad 1 the whole season for it to count? What is the cutoff for quads?

[311neers]

Obviously you can't take anyone for granted and road games can be tough but we only have 1 game left against a team with a winning record- Marsha is 11 and 11. If by some chance we run the rest of the table does our NET actually drop? Would it help if Auburn and Oregon State kept winning or does it really matter?

Well, beating JMU didn't seem to help our NET. So, it would seem regardless of what we do the rest of the way, it won't matter much.

I copied this from the NCAA page describing NET: The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

To quote another baseball movie aside from the thread title..."Well, I guess there's only one thing left to do."

I hadn't realized the NET model was changed to no longer account for scoring margin. KenPom is generally fairly close to the NET ranking (App actually higher in Net) and has the team dropping two more conference games. So if App wins out they'd be playing above the #77 they're at now. No idea where that lands the team, but it would be higher then today all things even.

It would help the rankings if we maybe had Troy again but we will probably still drop in the NET even winning out as everyone we play is below us now. That's what kills the chances of really good mid major teams. The committee would rather justify a 19-12 team who finished 6th in the Big12 over a 26-5 team like App who (hopefully) won their league regular season title. Then that 19-12 team gets beat on the first day and is forgotten.

We’ve got 1 great win. 3 good ones (UNCW JMU, JMU). And 3 horrible losses. The NIU loss is brutal, as is UNCA. No other good wins left on the schedule unless we get troy and JMU in SBC. Seems like we have to run the table in the tourney to make the dance! We can do it.

[311neers]

If we can keep going 1-0 and beat Toledo and UL those would be good wins. Both hot teams. Worry about GState and let’s keep going 1-0! Win anyway.

[APPdiesel]

How do the quad wins work? For example we beat Auburn so do they need to remain in quad 1 the whole season for it to count? What is the cutoff for quads?

The quad is determined by a team’s net ranking at the end of the season (full body of work). It’s a function of how good the team was all season and where you played them.

For home games:
Q1 1-30, Q2 31-75, Q3 76-160, Q4 161+

For neutral site games:
Q1 1-50, Q2 51-100, Q3 101-200, Q4 201+

For true road games:
Q1 1-75, Q2 76-135, Q3 136-240, Q4 241+

So as of right now the Auburn win looks solidly like a Q1 win but it’s possible they go on a massive losing streak and fall out of Q1. Whereas JMU could theoretically go on an insane tear and turn both of those games into Q1 wins.

The rub is that any win or loss can gain or lose value over the course of the season.

[hapapp]

Of our remaining games:
@Ga State Q3
@GS Q4
@Tx St Q4
Toledo Q3
Marshall Q4
UL Q3
@ODU Q4
@Marshall Q3
ODU Q4
AState Q4

Losses in any of those games will kill our NET and certainly destroy any little chance we have of an at large bid. It seems unlikely, but not impossible, that we go 13-0 over the rest of our schedule. I won't say what I'm thinking but man the pressure will really be mounting on this team moving forward.

[AppSt94]

Sadly it’s going to come down to the hottest team the first week of March getting the bid. While it is what makes March Madness exciting, it can really can kill a good season with one bad day.

[Bigdaddyg1]

I count at least 10 conferences where the regular season champs will possibly all have at least 10 losses. You know that a few of those conferences will have some middle of the pack 13 loss (or worse) team make a run and win their tournament and get a bid. While that's "the beauty" of the Big Dance every year it is also a bit ridiculous. Another reason to expand by one day/round. Let these teams with terrible records who magically won their tournament just play a preliminary round and if they beat a similar team from another similar conference then they deserve the bid. A solid 25-6ish App team should not lose a bid if we have a bad game in the conference tournament.

[appdaze]

Since 2000 there has been 15 or so non p5 teams to make the final 4. The new style of play, exposure for small teams, tourney expansion etc have changed it for the better. Before 2000 you had about 8 from 1980-2000 and a couple of those were that metro Conference with louisville. The modern set up makes for a much more exciting post season. People can't downplay the small conferences anymore. The evidence of success exists. Also, Vegas loves the underdogs and the upsets.

Get 25 wins and win the conference tourney. One game at a time. Survive and advance.

[Saint3333]

I don't see a scenario in which App or JMU gets an at-large bid. We'd need to be in the NET top 45, and currently 74th.

The next month's record will however have an impact on seeding. Currently we'd be a 12 seed, another loss probably puts our ceiling at 13.

Of course this is very premature as tournaments are unpredictable in CBB. But man is it fun to even speculate this stuff, typically by 2/1 we're discussing can we maybe get a one round bye in the conference tournament.

[appdaze]

Of course this is very premature as tournaments are unpredictable in CBB. But man is it fun to even speculate this stuff, typically by 2/1 we're discussing can we maybe get a one round bye in the conference tournament.

This.
I love App sports I'm general, but since I was a wee lad basketball has always been my sport. I'm loving having a coach and a team that puts us in this conversation. Shoot some years we are already talking spring practice.

[311neers]

Of course this is very premature as tournaments are unpredictable in CBB. But man is it fun to even speculate this stuff, typically by 2/1 we're discussing can we maybe get a one round bye in the conference tournament.

This.
I love App sports I'm general, but since I was a wee lad basketball has always been my sport. I'm loving having a coach and a team that puts us in this conversation. Shoot some years we are already talking spring practice.

By 2/1 we're onto baseball usually. Basketball has turned a corner!