ESPN FPI

yosef69 · Unread post by **yosef69** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:18 pm

Anyone know why FPI hates us? Its giving us 37 percent chance of beating ULL. Seems like it should be flipped. It also only have us 30 percent at UNC. Seems like it's a little out of whack.

NattyBumppo'sRevenge · Unread post by **NattyBumppo'sRevenge** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 12:34 pm

I've seen a few rankings with ULL ahead of us.

ericsaid · Unread post by **ericsaid** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:06 pm

It's because of the defensive performance against Charlotte. So long as Roof stays in the booth, the defensive performance should improve this week. Having Gasparato and Smith who were both involved in game planning Coastal and have seen their offense up close and personal for two seasons should help Roof out this week. Players have also played so they should have SOME input on what may work and what won't work.

These rankings get more precise because they are based solely on statistics. Louisiana is a quality team this season and I think it's likely to be a tough game. What most casual fans, or fans of App only who don't follow the conference fail to realize, is that the Sun Belt is ranked right behind the MWC and in some rankings is ranked above the MWC and just behind the AAC. Going to be a tough road to ho to even get to 11-1, much less 12-0.

Black Saturday · Unread post by **Black Saturday** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:30 pm

ULL is 3.5 favorite over The Gumroots this Saturday, reckon I'll pull for both to lose, or do we need Georgia Southern to lose since they are in our division?

ASU2012 · Unread post by **ASU2012** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:32 pm

Black Saturday wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:30 pm
ULL is 3.5 favorite over The Gumroots this Saturday, reckon I'll pull for both to lose, or do we need Georgia Southern to lose since they are in our division?

Always pull for the division to lose

bigdaddyg · Unread post by **bigdaddyg** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:34 pm

ULL might be as good or better than the Carolina's we face. A little off this topic but what the heck is with Ga. State?

Black Saturday · Unread post by **Black Saturday** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:38 pm

Yea saw GaSt lost to TxState, either way they've won as many as last year.

We may play ULL 2x? Whatever it takes to get that second game in Boone.

Boonegoon · Unread post by **Boonegoon** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:39 pm

ericsaid wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:06 pm
It's because of the defensive performance against Charlotte. So long as Roof stays in the booth, the defensive performance should improve this week. Having Gasparato and Smith who were both involved in game planning Coastal and have seen their offense up close and personal for two seasons should help Roof out this week. Players have also played so they should have SOME input on what may work and what won't work.

These rankings get more precise because they are based solely on statistics. Louisiana is a quality team this season and I think it's likely to be a tough game. What most casual fans, or fans of App only who don't follow the conference fail to realize, is that the Sun Belt is ranked right behind the MWC and in some rankings is ranked above the MWC and just behind the AAC. Going to be a tough road to ho to even get to 11-1, much less 12-0.

You may like to ho a road but many of us prefer to hoe a row....

Saint3333 · Unread post by **Saint3333** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:39 pm

ULL has the best RBs in the conference and will pound teams with them. I'm glad that one is played after the sun goes down.

yosef69 · Unread post by **yosef69** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:42 pm

I understand that they're good, but saying they're 2x as likely as us to win this game seems kind of odd.

NewApp · Unread post by **NewApp** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:45 pm

Boonegoon wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:39 pm

ericsaid wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:06 pm
It's because of the defensive performance against Charlotte. So long as Roof stays in the booth, the defensive performance should improve this week. Having Gasparato and Smith who were both involved in game planning Coastal and have seen their offense up close and personal for two seasons should help Roof out this week. Players have also played so they should have SOME input on what may work and what won't work.

These rankings get more precise because they are based solely on statistics. Louisiana is a quality team this season and I think it's likely to be a tough game. What most casual fans, or fans of App only who don't follow the conference fail to realize, is that the Sun Belt is ranked right behind the MWC and in some rankings is ranked above the MWC and just behind the AAC. Going to be a tough road to ho to even get to 11-1, much less 12-0.
You may like to ho a road but many of us prefer to hoe a row....

Smart arse. But that was funny.

appchicago · Unread post by **appchicago** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:04 pm

yosef69 wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:42 pm
I understand that they're good, but saying they're 2x as likely as us to win this game seems kind of odd.

FPI is purely statistical.

From this explanation:

The main piece of information powering these offensive, defensive and special teams predictions is past performance from that season’s games, in terms of expected points added per game. Expected points added, or EPA, is a measure of success/failure that takes into account yards, turnovers, red zone efficiency and more to determine how many points each unit is contributing to the team's scoring margin. For example, if a team wins by an average of 10 points per game, it could be that plus-seven of that is offense, plus-four is defense and minus-one is special teams. Because expected points added is built on play-by-play data, it’s fair to say that FPI looks at every play of every game in the season.

I don't know enough about the methodology to understand all the details, but the Charlotte game clearly hurt our stats a good bit. We allowed a lot of points and a lot of yards, and it probably doesn't help that one of our TDs was defensive and another was special teams. I'm also not sure how much it factors in that those points were allowed against a team that isn't very good.

Louisiana, on the other hand, hasn't allowed more than 38 this season, and that was against Mississippi State.

But this is all based on statistical models and Bayesian analyses, designed to predict wins as effectively as possible. But it's worth noting that their win likelihood is just that: a likelihood based on their models. From the site I linked above:

It’s worth noting that the results of analytics such as FPI are not black-and-white -- they give us likelihoods of outcomes, not certainties. Therefore, when FPI gives a team a 75 percent chance to win and that team loses, FPI is not necessarily “wrong.” A team with a 75 percent chance to win should lose one out of every four times, and if every team with a 75 percent chance to win does in fact win, the system is broken.

So in this case, the numbers, at present, suggest that if we played the Cajuns three times, they'd win twice. Those numbers will be amended after this week, for better or worse, based on how both teams play.

It's also worth noting that Chapel Hill still appears above us in the FPI index-- #51 vs our #64.

It's all just about how the efficiency numbers play out.

appgrad95&97 · Unread post by **appgrad95&97** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:14 pm

The Belt is a MUCH better conference now than it was when we joined it. There are several solid teams here now.

AppAlum1 · Unread post by **AppAlum1** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 4:23 pm

Boonegoon wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:39 pm

ericsaid wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:06 pm
It's because of the defensive performance against Charlotte. So long as Roof stays in the booth, the defensive performance should improve this week. Having Gasparato and Smith who were both involved in game planning Coastal and have seen their offense up close and personal for two seasons should help Roof out this week. Players have also played so they should have SOME input on what may work and what won't work.

These rankings get more precise because they are based solely on statistics. Louisiana is a quality team this season and I think it's likely to be a tough game. What most casual fans, or fans of App only who don't follow the conference fail to realize, is that the Sun Belt is ranked right behind the MWC and in some rankings is ranked above the MWC and just behind the AAC. Going to be a tough road to ho to even get to 11-1, much less 12-0.
You may like to ho a road but many of us prefer to hoe a row....

Or, to paraphrase Yogi Bera: If you come to a ho in the road, take it!

appstatealum · Unread post by **appstatealum** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:13 pm

Saint3333 wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:39 pm
ULL has the best RBs in the conference and will pound teams with them. I'm glad that one is played after the sun goes down.

They may have some good RBs, but the best RB in the conference resides in Boone, NC, and the other is on IR.

The best RB we will face this season was week 2 and we won. I’m not scared of ULL.

AppSt94 · Unread post by **AppSt94** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:13 pm

Per Chris Falica:

Big one for Wake at BC. Win could have Deacs 8-0 visiting VT.

Best W-L in FBS - Since 11/8/18
Clemson 10-0
Ohio State 9-0
Appalachian State 8-0
Florida 8-0
Alabama 9-1
Wake Forest 7-1 <
< Army, Boise State, LSU, Oklahoma also 7-1

Saint3333 · Unread post by **Saint3333** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:03 pm

appstatealum wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 5:13 pm

Saint3333 wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:39 pm
ULL has the best RBs in the conference and will pound teams with them. I'm glad that one is played after the sun goes down.
They may have some good RBs, but the best RB in the conference resides in Boone, NC, and the other is on IR.

The best RB we will face this season was week 2 and we won. I’m not scared of ULL.

When Cam went down they took that honor. It’s ok to admit there’s some talent in this conference.

AppfaninCAALand · Unread post by **AppfaninCAALand** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:31 pm

bigdaddyg wrote: ↑
Mon Sep 23, 2019 3:34 pm
ULL might be as good or better than the Carolina's we face. A little off this topic but what the heck is with Ga. State?

Funny how as the season has progressed I feel better about beating the directional Carolinas, but less confident about running the table in the Belt. Coastal may end up being the best Carolina we play, and I'm not confident at all about Louisiana and Troy on the road.

t4pizza · Unread post by **t4pizza** » Mon Sep 23, 2019 8:38 pm

The best part about playing South Carolina is the date of the game. By November that team should be so beaten down with no hope of a bowl or anything else to play for that I hope they don't have much fight left in them. Everyone talks about what a poor football game day atmosphere UNC has, well that has never been an issue for South Carolina. Their fans pack the house and make it loud. Hopefully we don't give them much to cheer about. I still see them as our toughest game of the year.

Yosef84 · Unread post by **Yosef84** » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:50 am

I just read where one of South Carolina's DBs has entered the portal and will sit out the rest of the year.

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