How long do you see us in the Sunbelt?

[ComebackShack]

Obviously it hinges on a lot of things but I don't think the sun belt is our permanent home.

[Rick0714]

Frankly, until we provide an economic advantage to another conference. It's all about $$ in college sports today. Need to get our attendance up at FB and BB games as well.

[SayYesToTheRock]

With the current P5 Autonomy, College Football should look out for massive changes on the horizon.

The current setup is almost certainly a temporary thing.

#ACCBound

jk

[DoubleA]

We thought our stay in I-AA was going to be a short term situation as well, and we ended up being there for over 30 years.

[bigdaddyg]

I have always kind of likened us to Boise State. Both schools are not really geographically appealing in terms of big conference affiliation. Both schools have taken similar routes from FCS to FBS. I would love to see us reach the level that Boise did although they have shown it to be a little tough to really sustain it. I was a little surprised that we got so rudely snubbed by Conference USA yet they have rolled out the red carpet to UNCC who will take beatings for several years as a fledgling program. Once they join the conference goes to 14 teams. You have to wonder if they would look to expand to 16 and invite App and another school although we would most certainly have to get our attendance numbers up to probably 30K average. To me the overall strength of football between CUSA and the SB can't be that much different. There are most certainly some bottom feeders there as well. The AAC with 11 members has got to be thinking addition at some point in order to form two football divisions. From a geographic standpoint that would make more sense for App although the strength of football overall is pretty stout. The one thing we simply can't do realistically is increase our TV market and we are stuck between WFU and UNCC. In my mind we will probably be in the SBC for the foreseeable future. I just hope that the better programs don't jump ship to take what will probably be an open slot at CUSA or AAC. If that happens does the SBC make a move to bring in a Liberty or a stronger FCS program thus weakening what is obviously the bottom FBS conference? Hope not

[Saint3333]

Reality is unless CUSA and SBC wake up and realize the benefits of more regional conferences we're going to be in the SBC for the foreseeable future.

From a football and baseball perspective I'm pretty content with the conference. ULL, Ark St. are solid. GS, App, USA, and Texas St. are good adds with growth potential. GA St. can only improve and once they move to the old Braves complex they will.

We need to add JMU or Mo. St., drop Idaho, and add NMSU for all sports by 2016.

[appbio91]

Reality is unless CUSA and SBC wake up and realize the benefits of more regional conferences we're going to be in the SBC for the foreseeable future.

From a football and baseball perspective I'm pretty content with the conference. ULL, Ark St. are solid. GS, App, USA, and Texas St. are good adds with growth potential. GA St. can only improve and once they move to the old Braves complex they will.

We need to add JMU or Mo. St., drop Idaho, and add NMSU for all sports by 2016.

I agree SB is a great fit for us right now. Also if anything happens soon we are certainly not first in line to move.

[Yosef]

Reality is unless CUSA and SBC wake up and realize the benefits of more regional conferences we're going to be in the SBC for the foreseeable future.

From a football and baseball perspective I'm pretty content with the conference. ULL, Ark St. are solid. GS, App, USA, and Texas St. are good adds with growth potential. GA St. can only improve and once they move to the old Braves complex they will.

We need to add JMU or Mo. St., drop Idaho, and add NMSU for all sports by 2016.

I couldn't agree more. The G5 would do well to ally themselves to combat the P5 by completely upending their conferences and forming regional conferences. Regional rivalries is what built the P5 schools. No true major rivalry that I can think (I'm sure there are a few) are not geographically based. If the G5 would just realign to create 5 regions to help facilitate rivalries, you might see the G5 slowly chip away at the P5 in terms of power, recruiting, etc. Never will they replace the P5, but they can certainly close the gap.

[clayton]

I'd put the over/under at 7.5 years.

Every non-P5 school/conference is in a fluid situation. The under will happen if we're good or if there are major changes to the system. The over will happen if we struggle or if there are few changes.

I think the Power 5 conferences are still several years away from figuring out what they really want to do. So, I'd expect more conference shuffling.

For the record, I think conferences are way off when they talk TV markets. Look at enrollment and where alumni end up because, unless you're a traditional power, alumni will be your biggest source of a fan base.

We may not be in the center of a big TV market, but we are near several of them.

As teams like Georgia State and UNCC continue to flounder, I think conferences will realize their error.

[EastHallApp]

Two things I am confident in:

1) Every team that moves from FCS to FBS thinks they are the next Boise State.

2) Every team in the Sun Belt thinks they are just here as a stopover on their way to a bigger conference.

[AppState89]

Two things I am confident in:

1) Every team that moves from FCS to FBS thinks they are the next Boise State.
.

This isn't directed to you EastHallApp. I know a lot of people want to think we are like Boise State, but we never will. Just can't happen. What other team in ID is worth a crap? Boise State has a total lock on the state, where App....well,,,,,, let's see.... UNC, NCSU, WF, ECU, DUKE, UNCC (now). Just can't happen, but wish it could. I would love to be a Boise State and take down the above teams. UNCC is a given and WF should be too. We will have years were we might/should beat UNC, NCSU, ECU and Duke, but I want to BEAT THEM ALL THE TIME!!!! Just my opinion. The future looks bright for us. Go Apps!!

[EastHallApp]

Two things I am confident in:

1) Every team that moves from FCS to FBS thinks they are the next Boise State.
.

This isn't directed to you EastHallApp. I know a lot of people want to think we are like Boise State, but we never will. Just can't happen. What other team in ID is worth a crap? Boise State has a total lock on the state, where App....well,,,,,, let's see.... UNC, NCSU, WF, ECU, DUKE, UNCC (now). Just can't happen, but wish it could. I would love to be a Boise State and take down the above teams. UNCC is a given and WF should be too. We will have years were we might/should beat UNC, NCSU, ECU and Duke, but I want to BEAT THEM ALL THE TIME!!!! Just my opinion. The future looks bright for us. Go Apps!!

Actually that was kind of my point. Not so much that we can't have that kind of success, as that they're that rare exception that makes everyone think they can be the next to do it.

Now, the Idaho thing might be more a similarity to us than you think. Yes, there's only one other program in the state. But Idaho is all but devoid of HS football talent, so that's not where Boise gets most of their players. They recruit a ton in California, some in Texas, and a little in the other Western states. Usually only a handful of in-state recruits per year. Sound familiar?

[Rick0714]

In my opinion, I don't think, in the end, we "moved up" in class as much as we maintained our status. With the emergence of the P5, G5 designations, its only a matter of time until it becomes officially 2 separate classifications. Instead of being 1-A/1-AA (FBS/FCS), we will be in the second, G5, tier. Essentially, the current FCS will be more aligned with the current DII classification. I think that's the biggest benefit of moving when we did, before FCS is gutted and reduced in significance.

As colleges face increasingly difficult economic situations, that will translate into athletics. I have seen different numbers, but in the last 30 years, college tuitions and fees have grown somewhere between 300-400% above the rate of inflation. We have seen a large and growing increase in the number of kids attending two year schools before transferring to a 4 year institution and is predicted to lead to a decrease to an overall decrease in tuition income. This has also strained scholarship, aid and grant programs who simply don't have the money to keep up. Student loan debt has grown and the number of years that it takes a student to repay those loans has increased to the point that some career paths are nearly impossible to ever pay back.

With ALL that said, I think we see less scholarship schools in FCS and, for those that can afford it, more moving into the G5 conferences. It will ALL boil down to money. Winning, tradition, and attendance has little meaning in the equation (see UNCharlotte Community College). I can not see us providing financial benefit to many other conferences unless the G5 completely overhauls conference affiliations to create regional conferences to save $. I have been happily surprised by how well we have fit in the Sun Belt overall and I think we will be here for quite a while.

[Black Saturday]

Sometime in the next 5 years, since it's all about the money, I think there will be a championship league of the conferences formed that don't fit in the exclusive cartel of the 3 and 4 letter networks and the Power 5. They don't want our kind, because scheduling our likes hurts their championship hopes.

The way it's set up now, non Power 5 schools have a snowball's chance of playing for a football championship. Like an earlier poster insinuated we have to grow out of our current economic status to ever have an invite into the country club. Right now our financial statement and resume is an albatross. We need some real progressives and visionaries leading us up the ladder.

It'll be very similar to being I-AA or FCS, but with 85 scholarships and a bigger playground.

I'm all for having a real chance to win a championship and right now that seems the only likely avenue.

[AppGrad78]

We'll be in the Sun Belt for many decades.

As Rick posted previously, future upward movement will be predicated a school's ability to enhance a conference's bottom line. That applies to any school, not just us.

We've reached a level of near equilibrium in college athletics. The schools with legitimate Power Conference aspirations are now in P5 conferences, and those conferences have extremely expensive penalties to prevent P5-to-P5 movement.

G5 conferences aren't at equilibrium yet, but they're quickly headed in that direction. The Sun Belt has an opening for a 12th football member, but once that's filled (presumably by an FCS move-up), all of FBS will be gridlocked. That's because the difference nowadays between one G5 league and another is negligible. Television revenue, which at one time differentiated the G5s, is expected to be nearly identical in the next few years, eliminating the biggest motivator for movement.

And as for the notion that regional realignment of the G5s might land us in a better position geographically, I'm not holding my breath. There's too much gravity keeping the current system together. Television contracts, existing rivalries, bowl tie-ins, jealously and just plain wrong-headedness have and will prevent the G5s from regionalizing. Certainly more compact, regional conferences make sense to fans, but unfortunately the commissioners, presidents and athletic directors have shown no willingness to take such a step. Otherwise it would have happened by now. The G5s have dug in their heels. Regionalization isn't coming.

We're going to be in the Sun Belt for a long time. We better make the best of it.

[ASUGoose]

UAB is about to drop the football program in the next few years so that will leave a spot in CUSA. It will be interesting to see if that happens what direction CUSA goes to add another member (current FBS team or FCS team).

[WVAPPeer]

We'll be in the Sun Belt for many decades.

As Rick posted previously, future upward movement will be predicated a school's ability to enhance a conference's bottom line. That applies to any school, not just us.

We've reached a level of near equilibrium in college athletics. The schools with legitimate Power Conference aspirations are now in P5 conferences, and those conferences have extremely expensive penalties to prevent P5-to-P5 movement.

G5 conferences aren't at equilibrium yet, but they're quickly headed in that direction. The Sun Belt has an opening for a 12th football member, but once that's filled (presumably by an FCS move-up), all of FBS will be gridlocked. That's because the difference nowadays between one G5 league and another is negligible. Television revenue, which at one time differentiated the G5s, is expected to be nearly identical in the next few years, eliminating the biggest motivator for movement.

And as for the notion that regional realignment of the G5s might land us in a better position geographically, I'm not holding my breath. There's too much gravity keeping the current system together. Television contracts, existing rivalries, bowl tie-ins, jealously and just plain wrong-headedness have and will prevent the G5s from regionalizing. Certainly more compact, regional conferences make sense to fans, but unfortunately the commissioners, presidents and athletic directors have shown no willingness to take such a step. Otherwise it would have happened by now. The G5s have dug in their heels. Regionalization isn't coming.

We're going to be in the Sun Belt for a long time. We better make the best of it.

Thanks for your post - I certainly trust your opinions - I know you are guessing like most of us however do you see the G5 going to some type of playoffs in conjunction with the existing lower tier bowl games? ---

[App1990]

P5 will become separate from the G5. This should happen because the economics are completely different. P5 relies on TV. G5 relies on attendance. P5 programs have budgets 10-20x that of G5 programs. P5 programs have already begun offering benefits to players that G5 programs can't afford--before it was nearly impossible to get those recruits, now it is impossible.

So our lot is in the G5, which will expand to include FCS programs. And once the G5 commishes face reality and accept two things--(1) TV does' t matter, it's attendance, and (2) the P5 is out of reach, they can begin making good decisions about the conf and individual programs. The big thing is travel. The budgets will (should) force regionalization. For this, we eventually will not be in the Sun Belt, but be in a conference that is tighter regionally, likely with the likes of JMU, UNCC, but maybe with the likes of ECU and Marshall.

Also, in the G5, student fees are important. And our enrollment is OK, but it is not an asset. It is far from USF and UCF numbers of 50k enrollment that can generate a ton of revenue. ECU and UNCC have an advantage on this revenue source. And the fact is our enrollment will not go up much more for the foreseeable future. So this is a constraining factor for us.

Yes, everyone thinks they are the next Boise St, but they are an outlier. And I see how we are anything like Boise. Claiming such a thing is hopeful homerism. They are THE state team and only one or two other FBS teams in a 500 mile radius. They are in an major urban area that offers many advantages. Considerable base of support from industry, including a large high tech sector. A large population base for fans. Easy transportation/airport. They have close links to California and NW, closer than ours to the SE. We don't have any of these things. If you are looking for a comparable situation, then we are much more like Troy, and maybe Marshall. Not to say we are destined to be like them. We have advantages, including tradition and (recent history) attendance, but we don't have many of the factors that other programs have.

If we end up in a tight regional conference with similar schools that will be drawn from FCS and FBS, we will have landed in the right place. That, after all, was the stated plan of this move.

[AppinVA]

I'm not sure how many FCS will make the jump up from here on out. You might get a few, but I don't think it will be as many as some think it will be.

[WVAPPeer]

Another question I have is --- Why do some of you guys feel that FCS is in trouble? - I am not questioning anyone's opinion just asking what is driving your opinion? It seems that there is more parity in FCS and several conferences (certainly not the SoCon) are much stronger ---