Probability of 3-0 v. 0-3 start

[MtnMan09]

I am still not predicting our record but I really don't see the Miami game not close. With all respect to Mark Richt is he going to just turn them around that fast? To compare altitudes is a bit of a stretch. I think we simply have enough talent to compete with them head to head.

Miami has not played well lately, but there is still a large talent gap between the U and us. Richt will return them to a big time winning program, just hopefully he can't do it before the third game of the season. I am not saying that we can't compete and win this game, just that they have more talent then we do and to think otherwise is naive. We get excited for a solid 3 star recruit, they have plenty of those and a lot more with higher rating (caveat- I don't put a ton of stock on lower level star ratings bc most don't get evaluated), heck they currently have 8 espn300 kids lined up for 2017. Talent hasn't been the issue at Miami, it has been coaching and they just significantly upgraded that area of concern.

It's also naive to compare our players by the star ratings out of high school. Most of our best players are juniors and seniors now, being 3 years removed from high school and our coaches have been one of the best at finding and developing talent. I'm not sure the guys at Miami have developed that much in the past 3 years due to, as you mentioned, coaching. I for one don't feel the talent gap is that big as far as the starting line up is concerned. The one area that it may be is in the depth because a lot of our depth comes in the form of freshmen and sophomores which are still developing, so Miami may have the better younger talent.

I agree with the other poster. You can't really be serious in stating that the pure "talent gap" between Miami and App is not that great? If we could recruit the caliber of player that Miami can we would be in heaven. I hope for a good showing since we are defending home turf, but to make statements like that defies credibility. The knock on their team, as you aptly pointed out, has never been about talent. Its been about coaching. They have better talent, no debate and no disrespect meant to our guys.

[CornCobPipes]

Not gonna make any predictions....I just hope our Mountaineers win them all.

Only thing I know for sure is I am lathering up thick with skeeter repellent when Miami comes to town!......This Zika thing getting scary!

[appbio91]

I would be willing to bet there are more 4 and 5 star guys in the NFL than unrated or 2 star. The system is right more times than not at that level.

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

I would be willing to bet there are more 4 and 5 star guys in the NFL than unrated or 2 star. The system is right more times than not at that level.

http://www.maxpreps.com/news/T_vYXJ121U ... school.htm

[MtnMan09]

I would be willing to bet there are more 4 and 5 star guys in the NFL than unrated or 2 star. The system is right more times than not at that level.

http://www.maxpreps.com/news/T_vYXJ121U ... school.htm

Ok then how many 3-star guys does Miami have compared to us? And if you're 4 and 5 star guys are impact players do you really need more than one or two to be good in order to drastically separate yourself from the competition?

[appgrad95&97]

Take this for what it is worth, but according to Rivals our 2013 class had one 3 star player, Miami had nine 4 star and eight three star players. Our 2014 class had two 3 star players, Miami had one 5 star, eight four star, and seventeen 3 star players. Our 2015 class had three 3 star players, Miami has seven 4 star and twelve 3 star players. Let's acknowledge they have a talent advantage and move on to the equally productive argument: More famous South Beach or Beach Mountain.

[MtnMan09]

Take this for what it is worth, but according to Rivals our 2013 class had one 3 star player, Miami had nine 4 star and eight three star players. Our 2014 class had two 3 star players, Miami had one 5 star, eight four star, and seventeen 3 star players. Our 2015 class had three 3 star players, Miami has seven 4 star and twelve 3 star players. Let's acknowledge they have a talent advantage and move on to the equally productive argument: More famous South Beach or Beach Mountain.

You stuck a 10 on that segue. Very solid transition.

[AtlAppMan]

I think that it is clearly more probable that we start the season 0-3 than it is we start 3-0. Personally, I put the probability of at 3-0 start at 0.009 (0.9%) and the probability of an 0-3 start at .48 (48%). I am genuinely interested in board’s opinion on this.

Wow, those are some very accurate statistics you have. You are projecting us to basically have a 50/50 chance of starting the season 0-3. I don't know where you got that from.

After much research I determined AppGrad95&97's secret formula for determining our 2016 season chances. I am sharing it with everybody so they can apply it to other FBS teams. Beware this only works for FBS teams and does not work for non-D1 teams.

[B30020]

Let's go 3-0 and enter the top 15. Then get 12-0 and into the top four in the country. Then win the last two games and win the national championship! That's what I'm talking about! Will not happen if the team does not dream about it!

[NattyBumppo'sRevenge]

Yet, with all that superior talent, Miami only had one more player drafted in the NFL than we did last year. I'm not here to argue star ratings out of high school, especially when players that commit to Miami get a bump in star ratings after they commit whereas players that commit to App get a ding. I'm saying the talent level when the players get to a starting role on the team are not that different. Our talent gets better under our coaching staff as time goes by. Miami, you could argue they have gotten worse over the past 4 years. I'm sure it will change with Richt, but I'm not going to take the Seminole Indian approach to evaluating talent.

[bigdaddyg]

Even 2 and 3 star (for what that's worth) get bigger, stronger, faster and more mature. Star stuff doesn't measure heart and desire.

[moonshine]

t4, I'm not disagreeing about the talent disparity. According to a poster on caneinsight.com, the U still managed to put as many players in "the League" as did a Mark Richt led UGA program.

" Facts from 2006-2015 NFL draft spanned 10 years.

UGA-55 players drafted/6 first rounders
Miami-48 players drafted/7 first rounders

Now if you want to include Richt's entire UGA coaching career to the same time span at Miami.

Miami-80 players drafted/23 first rounders
UGA-76 players drafted/12 first rounders" (I did not fact check for accuracy)

Now for the comparison of Kaaya and Lamb, no doubt Kaaya is talented. IMO, the reason you're hearing more about Kaaya as opposed to Lamb is 1) Kaaya plays for the U, P5 notoriety and plays stiffer competition on a weekly basis 2) Kaaya has the measurables (6'4" 215lbs.) that scouts love which allows a Jr. QB to leave early. You never really hear of a G5 QB leaving for the NFL early even with meaurables that scouts drool over.

[Saint3333]

You're hearing more about Kaaya because is projected to go in the top 10 of next year's draft. Make no doubt about it he is good, he may be the second best QB App has faced since Flacco.

[MtnDevil95]

Kaaya is not a better QB than Deshaun Watson let's first be clear on that point. However, Kaaya is a very talented and dangerous quarterback. The simple fact is that the App defense will face 2 of maybe the top 5 quarterbacks in the country in game 1 and game 3. UT's Dobbs is poised for a breakout season, and is on some analyst's short list for Heisman consideration . . .

I don't think the question is how does Lamb stack against Kaaya and Dobbs, but how App's defense stops Dobbs and Kaaya? There is no doubt that both Miami and Tennessee have bigger, better and faster players top to bottom that App State. App may have some individual position guys that are better, faster, bigger, quicker, but generally across the line-up it's an uphill struggle for the Apps against both pre-season top 25(ish) P5 teams. But bigger, better, faster does not win all football games. Coaching, position play, schemes, strategy wins football games.

Can App's defense get their offense of the field? Can App's offense keep their offenses off the field? Has App's S&C come far enough to give our guys a fighting chance late in the game? These are the real questions, and I like our chances. Given our running attack (although questions with the O-line are concerning) we have an offense that can both strike fast (Lamb's arm) and pound out a long drive. Even without Gibbs, our defense could be about as good as any in the country, P5 or otherwise. We may be one of the toughest defenses UT sees all season, inclusive of the SEC Least. Same for Miami and the ACC Crappy Division.

If I take my Black & Gold colored glasses off, I think the highest probable outcome is 1-2, but I think the Apps have a really good shot at 2-1. 3-0 is more likely than 0-3, I just do not see this team losing to ODU at The Rock.

[Saint3333]

Yes, "the second best since Flacco" as Watson was the best.

[appgrad95&97]

If I take my Black & Gold colored glasses off, I think the highest probable outcome is 1-2, but I think the Apps have a really good shot at 2-1. 3-0 is more likely than 0-3, I just do not see this team losing to ODU at The Rock.

I am ready to take it for this. You think it is more likely that we beat Tennessee and Miami than it is we loose to ODU? I think that we absolutely should be ODU and I imagine that we will be a solid home favorite. But when I last checked the money line has Tennessee at -1,500, we are not going to be big a favorite at home against ODU. And how is that game not the classic trap-game?

[MtnDevil95]

Yep, call me crazy and there's a reason I don't gamble, but I genuinely think it's more likely a surprise win in Knoxville than a trap loss in Boone. If Tennessee beats App, and especially if the Vols thump the 'neers, then ODU is not so much of a trap game as it is a "right the ship" game. Now I will concede that if App scares UT and is in the game late, or even beats UT, then ODU becomes a trap. So all things being equal, the expectation is Tennessee wins handily and the boys come back across the gap with something to prove to an incoming ODU team. . . .

[AppSt94]

Why are we only concerned about the 1st three games? The way that I see it, if we go 3-0 against Tenn, ODU, and Miami and lay an egg against Akron then 3-0 would mean nothing.

[MtnMan09]

Even 2 and 3 star (for what that's worth) get bigger, stronger, faster and more mature. Star stuff doesn't measure heart and desire.

So if Miami manages to beat us by 20+ at home, it will have to be because we didn't have enough heart and desire to beat them instead of the fact that they had more talent? I don't see that being the case. Most years our guys have all the heart and desire in the world but can't pull off wins against guys that are faster and stronger. I would love to win this game, I'm just trying to be realistic about the differences in our two programs.

[AtlAppMan]

Why are we only concerned about the 1st three games? The way that I see it, if we go 3-0 against Tenn, ODU, and Miami and lay an egg against Akron then 3-0 would mean nothing.

I don't think any of us are only concerned about the first three games. This is only a discussion, can't we have a little fun playing the "what if" game a little longer before reality sits in? Everybody is undefeated right now and this is why we love being fans of a successful program. We can think about the possibilities.