Predicting Top 25 Defenses

[moonshine]

#25 ranked App State D will face 2, in the predicted top 25 defenses, for the 2017 season. Our Mountaineers start off the season against #4 UGA and a few weeks later, face the #24 Weak Forest D. Had the Sun Belt not wet the bed with regards to scheduling, App could've faced off against 3 of the top 25 with Troy coming in at #6.

#25 APP STATE

What Makes Them Dangerous

Appalachian State's secondary was a major problem for most opponents in 2016. Though the Mountaineers allowed QBs to complete more than 57 percent of pass attempts, they took a "bend, don't break" approach and knew where to pick their spots. They finished the season with 20 interceptions against just 12 passing touchdowns allowed, and they get back four of the five team leaders in interceptions.


Room for Improvement

A fair amount of dumb luck goes into fumble recoveries. App State didn't have any of that luck last year, finishing dead last in the nation with one measly fumble recovery. Only forcing two fumbles had a lot to do with that. It has been a weakness of this team since joining the FBS ranks, as the Mountaineers forced just four fumbles in 2015 and six in 2014. Very surprised by this stat.


2017 Projection

They will immediately be put to a major test in the season opener against Georgia, but look for them to gradually claw their way back up the national rankings after that one. Facing Savannah State and dodging both Arkansas State and Troy in the Sun Belt schedule ought to help ensure they win at least nine games in the process.


http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2710 ... l-for-2017

[EastHallApp]

Saw this yesterday and also had not been aware of that fumble stat. Sounds like we need to start teaching our guys the Peanut Punch.

[moonshine]

Should've had 2 fumble recoveries last season when Gilchrist stole Dobbs' soul on the goal line. Maybe the flip side to that stat is the defense puts the clamps down and forces teams to throw more which would explain the high number of INT's compared to FF and FR.

I'm interested to see how Satt and Lamb navigate against UGA and Weak. UGA finished last season at #12 in total D giving up 24 ppg, while Weak finished #33, giving up 22 ppg. In comparison, App finished #11 in total D giving up 17 ppg. Hopefully the offense can put up at least 24+ against both.

[appmaj]

This makes me happy:

From the Wake Preview:

The first three and last three games of the season might be enough to get Wake Forest back to another bowl, but the six-game stretch of Appalachian State, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Notre Dame could be brutal. The Florida State and Louisville games will likely end any hope of having the No. 1 defense in the ACC

[NewApp]

Should've had 2 fumble recoveries last season when Gilchrist stole Dobbs' soul on the goal line. Maybe the flip side to that stat is the defense puts the clamps down and forces teams to throw more which would explain the high number of INT's compared to FF and FR.

I'm interested to see how Satt and Lamb navigate against UGA and Weak. UGA finished last season at #12 in total D giving up 24 ppg, while Weak finished #33, giving up 22 ppg. In comparison, App finished #11 in total D giving up 17 ppg. Hopefully the offense can put up at least 24+ against both.

Just curious. How did Georgia finish ahead of Wake in total defense while giving up 2 more points per game?

[moonshine]

Just curious. How did Georgia finish ahead of Wake in total defense while giving up 2 more points per game?

Below is the link I pulled the info from. It ranks them by yards allowed under "Team Total D" so the ranking is purely based on yards allowed. Weak gave up 500 more yards than UGA over the course of the 2016 season.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... on/defense

[NewApp]

Just curious. How did Georgia finish ahead of Wake in total defense while giving up 2 more points per game?

Below is the link I pulled the info from. It ranks them by yards allowed under "Team Total D" so the ranking is purely based on yards allowed. Weak gave up 500 more yards than UGA over the course of the 2016 season.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... on/defense

IC, thanks.

[HighlandsApp]

Crazy that Troy is ranked so high.....

[AppDawg]

Personally, fumbles are nice, but I'd rather wrap up and ensure the tackle is made than risk arm tackling by trying to force a ball loose.

[NewApp]

Personally, fumbles are nice, but I'd rather wrap up and ensure the tackle is made than risk arm tackling by trying to force a ball loose.

Good point, Dawg. Arm tackling used to be a problem for us. Of course, some of that was caused by the opponent's speed was better than our pursuit's.

[WataugaMan]

Personally, fumbles are nice, but I'd rather wrap up and ensure the tackle is made than risk arm tackling by trying to force a ball loose.

Agreed, however, recovering that fumble into the end zone at Tennessee would have been sweet!!

[NewApp]

Personally, fumbles are nice, but I'd rather wrap up and ensure the tackle is made than risk arm tackling by trying to force a ball loose.

Agreed, however, recovering that fumble into the end zone at Tennessee would have been sweet!!

Hitting the FG would have been even sweeter.

[WataugaMan]

If you're only going to recover one fumble all year might as well make it the game winner. James Madison game a few years back comes to mind for example.

[AtlAppMan]

It seems that some defenses are good at stripping and causing fumbles. I think of some of the NFL defenses when defenders get to ball carriers it looks like a pack of rabid dogs. I would like to see more of that. However, to our defense's credit, I love how our guys swarm to ball carriers and I don't want to change that at all. I also don't want to de-emphasize good tackling fundamentals as AppDawg said we don't want arm tackling where they get a bunch of yards after contact. I want to see swarming to ball, gang tackling, good wrap up techniques AND good stripping techniques to force fumbles. Basically I want it all.

[EastHallApp]

It seems that some defenses are good at stripping and causing fumbles. I think of some of the NFL defenses when defenders get to ball carriers it looks like a pack of rabid dogs. I would like to see more of that. However, to our defense's credit, I love how our guys swarm to ball carriers and I don't want to change that at all. I also don't want to de-emphasize good tackling fundamentals as AppDawg said we don't want arm tackling where they get a bunch of yards after contact. I want to see swarming to ball, gang tackling, good wrap up techniques AND good stripping techniques to force fumbles. Basically I want it all.

Me too!

Not that I'm a coach or anything, but I think the ideal would be that the first guy wraps him up, then you have subsequent defenders in the area to try and strip or punch out the ball.