ULM?

[appchicago]

Just saw that the line for the Troy/ULM game tomorrow is Troy -4.5.

Can someone explain to me what Vegas and some prognosticators see in ULM? I know they beat us last year. That was a low point. But they weren't great otherwise (4-8) and haven't been good this year (2-1, but they barely snuck by SoMiss and SELA. Getting trounced by T A&M is understandable, but those wins aren't exactly stellar).

And yet the ESPN bowl predictions had them in the NO Bowl and Cure Bowl last week, and while they've dropped in this week's projections, one of the analysts still has them bowl eligible (Arizona Bowl).

Can someone help me understand why they're getting the benefit of the doubt? Because as it is, I'd take Troy minus the points and more without hesitation. I mean, Nebraska's rebuilding, but if Troy can beat them by 5, I think they should be able to manage with the Warhawks, no?

[moonshine]

ULM is probably getting 3 points for being at home so one could view it as a 7.5 spread. It's also of note that Troy has fallen victim to their success the following week. After beating App and getting ranked in 2016, the next game they got beat down by the Red Wolves. Last year, they followed the LSU win with an L against their rival, USA. Maybe Vegas is counting on another let down game from the Trojans coming off their victory against the Huskers.

ULM is considered the dark horse in the west division behind stAte, most likely because of how weak UL, Tex St. and USA looked last year. I guess many were thinking the Warhawks would pick up where they left off last season on offense finishing #21 in total offense. Unfortunately for them, they are only averaging 21 ppg so far this season and if you remove TAMU, it only goes up to 27+ ppg. Obviously they can improve those numbers but I'd imagine they aren't thrilled with how deficient their offense has been to this point. While improved over last year, where they finished next to last in total defense, their weakest link appears to be defense again. They currently rank #110 in total D.

[biggie]

Might be Troy being seen as down a little and ULM being seen as up slightly.

[T-Dog]

Same thing Vegas saw that had App as only -14 at UNCC. The hangover effect of the big game.

ULM's defense looks improved so far, and if their offense can get it together consistently, they'll be a dark horse in the west for sure.

[AppSt94]

The goal is to state an opening line to generate action on both sides. This line is a great in as it is likely to be seen as a good value from both sides. Troy is the better team but they are plodders. Their MO is to wear you down. Not a big scoring team but many will think that they are definitely a half of a touchdown favorite. ULM has the offensive weapons to score points so they can keep it close. Not enough value for me to invest in this one, but I would take ULM.

[AppSt94]

FYI, this game is on the Bear’s board on ESPN Gameday.

[biggie]

At +5 for his board.

[appchicago]

I get that the purpose of the line is to spread the action, and isn’t necessarily an indicator of team quality. I also know Vegas generally knows what it’s doing. But if I were a betting man, I’d go Troy all day.

[AppSt94]

Troy is a better team so I understand the rationale to take them. One of the rules of gambling is, if you can make a case for the dog winning the game outright then you take them.

[87ASUgrad]

On ESPN College Game Day, Bear just picked ULM to cover the 5 point spread and said they will beat Troy today. WTH?!?! I don't get it. Does Troy have some injuries or something?

[Rekdiver]

Yes Troy has a history of the big let down after a win over P5 teams but not today. Troy wins handily.

[AppinVA]

On ESPN College Game Day, Bear just picked ULM to cover the 5 point spread and said they will beat Troy today. WTH?!?! I don't get it. Does Troy have some injuries or something?

I am okay with a Troy loss.

[Goapps15]

Troy beat a very average Nebraska team that would lose by 35 to Penn State. Plus they usually have a let down the week after a big win.

[NoLongerLurking]

Monroe by 2

[biggie]

Think we’d all be happy with the Troy loss. But I don’t expect it.

[AppSt94]

A Troy loss would be nice but we need to handle our own business.

[moonshine]

Not sure why some of you wanted to see a Troy loss against ULM. App doesn’t play ULM this season and Troy losing to the Warhawks doesn’t make a difference with how the east division plays out. As fans, we should want every team App plays to win their other games to help improve App’s SOS, even UNCC. As a conference, we want the likes of Tulsa, UAB and Nebraska to also win since our conference mates took those teams down.

[AppSt94]

Not sure why some of you wanted to see a Troy loss against ULM. App doesn’t play ULM this season and Troy losing to the Warhawks doesn’t make a difference with how the east division plays out. As fans, we should want every team App plays to win their other games to help improve App’s SOS, even UNCC. As a conference, we want the likes of Tulsa, UAB and Nebraska to also win since our conference mates took those teams down.

Sure a Troy loss to anyone in conference affects how the East plays out. The overall conference record is a deciding factor. If we finished tied then head to head matters but if one of us enters the last game up two in the division, then that outcome is rendered moot. It doesn't affect the desired outcome of said game but it doesn't make it as vital. Our SOS is garbage in the eyes of the pollsters. We only have two ways of getting to a NY6 bowl. We boat race everyone in our path and Penn State runs the table.

[moonshine]

While all conference games are important, there is a hierarchy. Winning east division games are more important than cross divisional match ups with regards to playing for a conference championship.

SOS isn’t just for NY6/pollsters, it can help with being selected to host the championship game. If no teams are ranked in the CFP, the conference will determine home field using a formula based on six computer ratings that were used in the old Bowl Championship Series standings with SOS being a variable within the formula.

[JMappfan5]

Definitely want every team in our division to lose Conference games. Gives us a better shot at the Sun Belt Championship game!