NY6

[AppSt94]

I think AppStFan1's analysis is pretty succinct but it is a bit overly complicated in that we don't really need to worry about all of those points. GS is going to lose another game or two in conference and if they don't, well then they deserve the title. For the AAC, certainly there are a lot of teams in play but only one is a problem and that is the one that will be the champ. Question is, will it be a one loss champ or a two loss champ? A lot of cannibalism is going to occur over there in the next few weeks. That leaves the MWC. I don't think that it is a foregone conclusion that Boise wins out. Let's see how it plays out.

[AppStFan1]

I think AppStFan1's analysis is pretty succinct but it is a bit overly complicated in that we don't really need to worry about all of those points. GS is going to lose another game or two in conference and if they don't, well then they deserve the title. For the AAC, certainly there are a lot of teams in play but only one is a problem and that is the one that will be the champ. Question is, will it be a one loss champ or a two loss champ? A lot of cannibalism is going to occur over there in the next few weeks. That leaves the MWC. I don't think that it is a foregone conclusion that Boise wins out. Let's see how it plays out.

Well, it is very complicated. That is why I said it is a waste of time to think about. All but maybe the last two have to happen for sure. We are not going to a NY6 and we will not be ranked again unless we at least win the next 2 games.

At least 3 of those things are going to happen for sure but the rest may or may not happen. It is not a guarantee although much of it is likely. I just don't see all of it happening.

The AAC is a superior league to the SBC and any 1-loss Champ in that league is going over a 1-loss SBC. I think we have to play a lot better if we want to have a shot against SMU or Memphis. Memphis has gotten a lot better since their ULM game.

[Seattleapp]

I just wish the playoff field was expanded or they had a group of 5 playoff. This whole thing is ridiculous.

[ah59396]

NY6 hope is dead. Which sucks! But we still have tons to play for and also help build momentum into next year.

I’m still frustrated that we got handled by GS, I think they are a lesser quality team top to bottom and had we executed our game plan, would have won easily. Frankly, we lost to a team that went to OT against Southern Alabama. I just don’t understand.


BUT. NY6 has become the de facto G5 National Championship. Whether we like it or not, I suspect this was by design.

The fact that 5 years into FBS play, we are right there in the top 5 through week 9 is an insane achievement for us. How many G5 teams are there? 60?

We will likely end the season a “top 10” G5 team (again), and while I do think the AAC teams are slightly better than us, there’s not a single one I think we couldn’t beat. The idea that we’d lose to Memphis or SMU by 17 is I think a bit of recency bias.

I won’t be shocked if we beat USC and run the table. I also won’t be shocked if we lose. But we are every bit as good as any other G5 team when we are on our game.

[WVAPPeer]

It's not dead until it is actually DEAD

[AppStFan1]

It's not dead until it is actually DEAD

It is not completely dead but go read my list. That is so much to happen the chance now is about 2% and that is assuming we win out. NY6 talk is stupid now if we can't beat a very average SEC team in Columbia. Sadly, an average SEC team is better than 95% of the G5 teams.

[AppSt94]

Agree with the above. We need to win out and should that happen, I would put our one loss resume against a 2 loss AAC champ and a 1 loss MWC champ and see what the committee thinks.

[WVAPPeer]

I did read your list and I didn't say it was probable or likely only that it is not dead yet

[appgrad95&97]

By my count, there are five one-loss and one 2-loss G5 schools ranked. Really think App ever had a NY6 shot?

[AppSt94]

By my count, there are five one-loss and one 2-loss G5 schools ranked. Really think App ever had a NY6 shot?

4 of those 6 are irrelevant. Only two of them can be conference champs and qualify for the NY6 spot.

[Rick83]

By my count, there are five one-loss and one 2-loss G5 schools ranked. Really think App ever had a NY6 shot?

Yes, we had a shot and still do. Basically we need to win out and have a two loss champion out of the AAC for serious consideration. Not saying we'd get the invite in that situation but I don't think there'd be another G5 champion with two P5 wins at that point. Keep in mind the committee is only supposed to look at this season's body of work...not program history.

[appgrad95&97]

By my count, there are five one-loss and one 2-loss G5 schools ranked. Really think App ever had a NY6 shot?

4 of those 6 are irrelevant. Only two of them can be conference champs and qualify for the NY6 spot.

Sure but why would a 12-1 Sunbelt champion be ranked ahead of a 2-loss AAC (or MWC) champ? Where's the evidence?

[Rick83]

To my knowledge, there's never been a Sun Belt champion with two P5 wins going up against a two loss AAC champion so there's no way to determine how the committee would decide the invitation. We can only speculate and nobody has said we'd get the invitation in that scenario but we're saying we'd have a shot. It's not dead if we win out. After seeing Cincy almost lose to ECU, anything can happen in the AAC at this point.

[goapps93]

I am so tired of the naysayers and killjoys telling us how to think. This is a FAN board. Most of us truly understand the odds are not in our favor but it hurts APPSolutely nothing for us to dream and hope for a miracle. There are a handful on here who love to pontificate as nauseum. Look, you know what you're talking about, we get that but give it a rest. Sheesh, it's really getting to not be fun anymore. SMDH!!!

[citroknight]

By my count, there are five one-loss and one 2-loss G5 schools ranked. Really think App ever had a NY6 shot?

Yes, we had a shot and still do. Basically we need to win out and have a two loss champion out of the AAC for serious consideration. Not saying we'd get the invite in that situation but I don't think there'd be another G5 champion with two P5 wins at that point. Keep in mind the committee is only supposed to look at this season's body of work...not program history.

They do look at the whole body of work but a P5 win alone isn't a golden ticket. It depends on how that P5 team is doing. UNC is 50 in the Massey composite ratings and South Carolina is 56. The AAC has Cincinnati 16, Memphis 17, Navy 20, UCF 21, SMU 22, and Tulane 42. The AAC provides the opportunity for the potential champ to get better wins in conference than middle of the pack P5 teams.

[AppInDC]

By my count, there are five one-loss and one 2-loss G5 schools ranked. Really think App ever had a NY6 shot?

4 of those 6 are irrelevant. Only two of them can be conference champs and qualify for the NY6 spot.

Sure but why would a 12-1 Sunbelt champion be ranked ahead of a 2-loss AAC (or MWC) champ? Where's the evidence?

In the final regular season polls last year, a two loss App State with no P5 wins was ranked 30th and 31st respectively in each poll. The AAC/Mountain West champs rankings were:

- Undefeated UCF (Top 10 but not possible this year)
- Two loss Fresno State #19 and #21

I looked at previous years as well under the CFP system:

2017: Undefeated UCF and three loss Boise. Boise was #25 in both polls
2016: Three loss Temple and SDSU. Temple was 23/24 and SDSU unranked
2015: One loss Houston 14/16 and three loss SDSU (unranked)
2014: Three loss Memphis (#25) and two loss Boise State #16

Among teams with two or more losses, #16 was the absolute top. That was also five years ago. The later teams have been in the 20s or even unranked. So the question is how many spots is one fewer loss and two P5 wins worth? If it's worth 5-10 spots, we may be in the ballgame against two loss teams.

Also note that I was using the AP/Coaches poll to determine the gap because App has never been ranked in the one that actually matters. I can't find any G5 team with two or more losses that was ranked higher than #20 in the final ranking before the playoffs and bowl spots are allotted.

[Rick83]

By my count, there are five one-loss and one 2-loss G5 schools ranked. Really think App ever had a NY6 shot?

Yes, we had a shot and still do. Basically we need to win out and have a two loss champion out of the AAC for serious consideration. Not saying we'd get the invite in that situation but I don't think there'd be another G5 champion with two P5 wins at that point. Keep in mind the committee is only supposed to look at this season's body of work...not program history.

They do look at the whole body of work but a P5 win alone isn't a golden ticket. It depends on how that P5 team is doing. UNC is 50 in the Massey composite ratings and South Carolina is 56. The AAC has Cincinnati 16, Memphis 17, Navy 20, UCF 21, SMU 22, and Tulane 42. The AAC provides the opportunity for the potential champ to get better wins in conference than middle of the pack P5 teams.

I don't disagree with the fact that the AAC has a stronger SOS in-conference but we'd be in uncharted territory at least until the season plays out. Cincy was not impressive against lowly ECU in my humble opinion...all I'm saying is that if we win out we'd get a serious look by the committee especially with a two loss AAC champion.

[AppStFan1]

We will receive votes if we finish 12-2 but won't be ranked. If we finish 13-1 we will probably be 23-25 range. However, let's see how the season goes. We lose and none of this matters.

[EastHallApp]

By my count, there are five one-loss and one 2-loss G5 schools ranked. Really think App ever had a NY6 shot?

Yes. Not sure how what you’re saying suggests otherwise, if in fact that’s what you’re doing.

[AppStFan1]

By my count, there are five one-loss and one 2-loss G5 schools ranked. Really think App ever had a NY6 shot?

Yes. Not sure how what you’re saying suggests otherwise, if in fact that’s what you’re doing.

Agreed we had a shot if we went undefeated. Now, so much would have to happen that it is stupid to debate until some of it plays out and we have wins over our next 3 opponents though.

We can still have a great year regardless if ranked or not. With that said, you can book it that if we go 13-1 we will be ranked in the 20-25 range at the end of the season. There is no doubt about that. Just can't lose again and know that a SBC team is done when it comes to the NY6 with any loss. Have to go undefeated.