This Weekend's Scenarios

[EastHallApp]

I'm still curious what happens when coastal wins their last two games. 6 bowl eligible teams in conference with 5 tie ins. I understand champion goes to New Orleans, but it seems like the conference would make a exception which would not only benefit App(put us in a completely different bowl game against a p5 or aac) and UL(so they could play in NO bowl), but also the conference. I would imagine they would want the conference champ at 12-1 playing against a p5 or aac school instead of a second place team from a weak g5 conference. There would be much more interest in App versus wake/fsu/Cincinnati/smu than a Toledo/Ohio/wku. As everyone knows and many have said that perception is key. If App beats another second tier g5 school in a bowl game it doesn't move the needle but if we were to beat a p5 school in a bowl game that perception, that is already changing, will continue to change at a greater rate. It just seems it would be a win win for the sunbelt conference and the schools it would affect.

Pull for coastal. They ought to win their final 2.

If we were to lost any of the next 3 games then all this doesn't matter. We won't have earned that chance.

What happens in that case is that the champ still goes to New Orleans, the other four Sun Belt bowls fill their spots, and then whichever team got passed over by all of them fills a spot in a lower-tier bowl elsewhere, probably against another 6 or 7 win G5.

[AppInDC]

This is true, again.

There is a nearly 0% chance the Georgia Southern loss doesnt end up being a cataclysmic failure in app state history. If we lose to Troy then that less kept us out of the conference title game, if we win out and miss out on the cotton bowl to go back to NO...we can blame the 3 point loss to GA Southern...if we make the cotton bowl and someone win...we missed out in a perfect season. Now I'll take winning the cotton bowl and it would be the best season in our history....but I'm afraid the Georgia Southern game keeps us from taking the next step

I agree the Georgia Southern loss sucked but if App finishes 12-1 and goes to the Cotton Bowl, then I hope every season is a cataclysmic failure.

Agreed. But anything less than winning the cotton bowl will leave us with so much regret. Not a failure...would be an awesome season at 12-1 no matter what. But that would still leave that one game as a historic meltdown

I understand the emotion driving your comments and appreciate your passion but I think you're overstating the case a bit. We've already accomplished more this season (and over the past 5 years) than any reasonable person could have expected when we made this transition. That feeling of having a major opportunity lost is exactly what we have felt three times recently when we left "wins" on the field against Tennessee, Wake and Penn State. That's how sports work! There has been no cataclysmic event this season....just a disappointing loss. If we lose to Troy, then our "failure" is no more attributed to the GS loss than it is to the loss at Troy. For me, the epitome of a "disappointing" season was 2017. We lost the Wake game even though we outplayed them the whole way....off-sides call on a punt that gave Wake back the ball and resulted in the winning score...followed by a blocked kick! UGH!!! Then there was the mid season meltdown resulting in losses to UMass and ULM. YIKES! We recovered and salvaged a share of the SB Championship and then dominated Toledo in our bowl game. The App nation survived that season and continued to move forward. If something happens this year to prevent the attainment of our goals, we'll do the same thing.

Regarding 2017, I would also add that it was a weird season because App regularly needed second half comebacks against some of the worst teams in FBS. Not counting 2014 since there was no chance of a bowl, it was easily the weakest season App has had in FBS. But as the above poster mentioned, App nearly beat Wake Forest, finished 9-4, and shut out Toledo in a bowl game. Lot of schools with they could struggle like that.

[Yosef84]

I could possibly see a Louisiana - Louisiana Tech match up in New Orleans, and us in another bowl (against someone like Wake, Virginia, SMU etc.) as you suggest. Just keep winning and sit back and wait.

As it stands, the projected number of bowl eligible teams vs bowl slots available is almost right for something to happen, but in order for that "something" to be desirable the conference unable to fill the tie-in slots would have to be one of the P5. That makes it a bit of a reach but it's still possible.

The ACC has 10 tie-ins (I think that's right) and currently has 8 teams eligible with 5 teams mathematically in reach. Since Clemson will get one of the playoff spots, that takes away one of the eligible slots.

The SEC also has 10 tie-ins and currently has 6 teams eligible with 6 more in reach. Since one of those teams will definitely go to the playoffs, it's possible that they could fall short, especially if Georgia wins the conference game and the committee puts both them and LSU in the playoffs.

As others have pointed out, we would certainly need for a third party (ESPN) to step in and broker this deal but it's possible, although unlikely. It does keep things interesting.

[appstatealum]

I could possibly see a Louisiana - Louisiana Tech match up in New Orleans, and us in another bowl (against someone like Wake, Virginia, SMU etc.) as you suggest. Just keep winning and sit back and wait.

As it stands, the projected number of bowl eligible teams vs bowl slots available is almost right for something to happen, but in order for that "something" to be desirable the conference unable to fill the tie-in slots would have to be one of the P5. That makes it a bit of a reach but it's still possible.

The ACC has 10 tie-ins (I think that's right) and currently has 8 teams eligible with 5 teams mathematically in reach. Since Clemson will get one of the playoff spots, that takes away one of the eligible slots.

The SEC also has 10 tie-ins and currently has 6 teams eligible with 6 more in reach. Since one of those teams will definitely go to the playoffs, it's possible that they could fall short, especially if Georgia wins the conference game and the committee puts both them and LSU in the playoffs.

As others have pointed out, we would certainly need for a third party (ESPN) to step in and broker this deal but it's possible, although unlikely. It does keep things interesting.

I believe most of the “backup” options for SEC and ACC tie ins are already set. CUSA is one of those conferences that already is established as a backup Conference. I’m not sure what or even if the SunBelt has established themselves as a “backup” conference.

[ericsaid]

I'd rather them both win out as well with us winning our next two and possibly hosting a ranked UL team in the Conference Championship game, but understand the intent of the OP. If UL could get ranked before the championship game and we beat them, we'd be sitting at 12-1 with two P5 wins and a win against a ranked opponent. That'd be a good resume against what Boise State has done thus far. They'd have beaten 1 P5 who has since fired their coach and have no ranked wins. We just need the AAC to kill each other off.

The only way Louisiana gets ranked is by beating a ranked App team in the conference championship game. They, inexplicably, aren't receiving any votes in the AP Poll.

[AppSt94]

I could possibly see a Louisiana - Louisiana Tech match up in New Orleans, and us in another bowl (against someone like Wake, Virginia, SMU etc.) as you suggest. Just keep winning and sit back and wait.

As it stands, the projected number of bowl eligible teams vs bowl slots available is almost right for something to happen, but in order for that "something" to be desirable the conference unable to fill the tie-in slots would have to be one of the P5. That makes it a bit of a reach but it's still possible.

The ACC has 10 tie-ins (I think that's right) and currently has 8 teams eligible with 5 teams mathematically in reach. Since Clemson will get one of the playoff spots, that takes away one of the eligible slots.

The SEC also has 10 tie-ins and currently has 6 teams eligible with 6 more in reach. Since one of those teams will definitely go to the playoffs, it's possible that they could fall short, especially if Georgia wins the conference game and the committee puts both them and LSU in the playoffs.

As others have pointed out, we would certainly need for a third party (ESPN) to step in and broker this deal but it's possible, although unlikely. It does keep things interesting.

I believe most of the “backup” options for SEC and ACC tie ins are already set. CUSA is one of those conferences that already is established as a backup Conference. I’m not sure what or even if the SunBelt has established themselves as a “backup” conference.

This is correct. The only thing worse than the primary bowl tie ins, is the lack of secondary tie ins.

[FTE_rawr]

If App and ULL both win, App holds tiebreaker for home field right?

[Rick83]

If App and ULL both win, App holds tiebreaker for home field right?

Yes, if we both win out we'd have the same conference records. In that case head-to-head results determine home field which we of course hold against them.