Grading Ponce

[T-Dog]

I don't have the stats right in front of me, but I think third down conversion rates should also include fourth down conversion rates. App has gone for it on a good number of fourth downs in recent games and converted.

[WASU 93]

I don't have the stats right in front of me, but I think third down conversion rates should also include fourth down conversion rates. App has gone for it on a good number of fourth downs in recent games and converted.

That's kind of double-edged. On one side, we are going for it on 4th, because we failed on 3rd. However, there are times when Ponce knows that Clark is going to go for it on 4th if we have the right "down and distance" and is calling plays to get us in that situation.

Looking at the last 4 games:
Louisiana, we were 0/11 on third down (we had some drops), but 2/2 on 4th.
Coastal, we were 5/11 on third, but 0/2 on 4th
ULM, we were 5/15, but 4/6 on 4th
A-State, we were 8/15, then 2/2

Through nine games, we have went over 500 yards of total offense in 5 games and over 460 yards in 7.
While we have had some defensive/ST scores, we have gone over 50 points once, over 40 four times and scored over 30 seven times.

I'd still like to see us use our backs a little more in the passing game (we've completed 10 passes to our backs, 18 to our TE's and 152 passes to our WR's.)

Ponce, also has a different challenge compared to recent play callers in that Chase Brice is a more accurate pocket passer, but defenses do not have to respect the QB run at the same level as they did in previous year's. We have progressed the offense more through the season as we seem to be using more motion, misdirection. and our being more aggressive in our play calling.
However, with a new OC, a new to the program QB and that kind of production, I would think the grade would be A-/B+

[WASU 93]

Third Down Conversions

2018 App State ranked 44th Nationally 71/169 converted 42.0%
2019 Ranked #26 89/200 44.5%
2020 Ranked #5 85/162 51.2%
2021 Currently Ranked #81 44/116 37.9%

Fourth Down Conversions
2018 Ranked Tied for 38th nationally 13 of 22 converted 59.1%
2019 #1 in the Nation 13/16 for 81.3%
2020 #59 in the Nation 11/20 for 55%
2021 57th in the Nation, again 11/20 for 55%

[Rick83]

I honestly don't care about stats like 3rd down conversion as long as we're getting the total yards and more importantly scoring. I'm a simple guy...I just want to score more points than the other guys...which we almost always do.
BTW, I think Ponce is doing a great job, especially considering it's his first year actually calling the plays.

[appstate5]

Overall I am much more pleased this year vs last year. My grade for Ponce would be a "B". As previously mentioned not always happy with the 3rd down play-calling and not happy with Noel starting the game over Cam. I have been screaming for the tight ends to be more incorporated in the passing game and that seems to now be happening. I am still waiting on the RB's to be involved in the passing game. Do we not have a running back who can catch a pass? I've seen some of the other teams really utilize their backs. Get Cam and Noel out in the flat with room to make guys miss. On 2nd thought, I'll upgrade that grade to a B+.

[AppSt94]

Overall I am much more pleased this year vs last year. My grade for Ponce would be a "B". As previously mentioned not always happy with the 3rd down play-calling and not happy with Noel starting the game over Cam. I have been screaming for the tight ends to be more incorporated in the passing game and that seems to now be happening. I am still waiting on the RB's to be involved in the passing game. Do we not have a running back who can catch a pass? I've seen some of the other teams really utilize their backs. Get Cam and Noel out in the flat with room to make guys miss. On 2nd thought, I'll upgrade that grade to a B+.

What about this year’s offense is more pleasurable to you? Based on your commentary regarding the RBs and TEs, this was an issue last year as well. Same record through 9 games, virtually the same offensive production so what makes this more pleasurable. Is it the balance?

[proasu89]

Overall I am much more pleased this year vs last year. My grade for Ponce would be a "B". As previously mentioned not always happy with the 3rd down play-calling and not happy with Noel starting the game over Cam. I have been screaming for the tight ends to be more incorporated in the passing game and that seems to now be happening. I am still waiting on the RB's to be involved in the passing game. Do we not have a running back who can catch a pass? I've seen some of the other teams really utilize their backs. Get Cam and Noel out in the flat with room to make guys miss. On 2nd thought, I'll upgrade that grade to a B+.

It’s possible that the backs are primarily used for protection.

[GastonApp09]

So what I find interesting in the overall evaluation of this years offense is that it is better. While it seems to flow better and appears to look better, the difference in production doesn’t support that it is all that much better. The 2021 offense averages 11 more yards per game and 3 more points. This years 3rd down efficiency is 37% while last years offense converted on 51% of attempts. Given the gluttony of weapons, you would think that there would be a larger disparity.

I think it's also fair to point out that most of the SB teams we have played to this point are better than what we saw last year. I don't feel like the stats tell the whole story. A little bit of eye test has to come into play here since so many of the variables changed. Overall, the offense looks more complete this year. Brice is simply better at making certain throws, especially down the field, than Zac. Offensive line play is pretty comparable to last year. WR play is better this year across the board other than the Miami game in which no one could get open until late in the game. RB play has been even. TE play has been better this year than last in both blocking and receiving.

[AppSt94]

So what I find interesting in the overall evaluation of this years offense is that it is better. While it seems to flow better and appears to look better, the difference in production doesn’t support that it is all that much better. The 2021 offense averages 11 more yards per game and 3 more points. This years 3rd down efficiency is 37% while last years offense converted on 51% of attempts. Given the gluttony of weapons, you would think that there would be a larger disparity.

I think it's also fair to point out that most of the SB teams we have played to this point are better than what we saw last year. I don't feel like the stats tell the whole story. A little bit of eye test has to come into play here since so many of the variables changed. Overall, the offense looks more complete this year. Brice is simply better at making certain throws, especially down the field, than Zac. Offensive line play is pretty comparable to last year. WR play is better this year across the board other than the Miami game in which no one could get open until late in the game. RB play has been even. TE play has been better this year than last in both blocking and receiving.

100% agree with you. People don’t realize how bad our TE play was last year and how much that affected everything else. Not to mention the huge difference in the WR personnel talent, health and experience.You are correct in that stats don’t tell the whole story but it’s a great spot to start your deep dive. But to your point, the variables did change in terms of personnel improvements over last year, however the overall statistics don’t show much difference. Which is the reason why I asked what was more pleasurable about it.

[AtlAppMan]

The one problem that continues to bug me is the 3rd and 4th and short situations. We don't seem to have a consistent answer. I would expect with our weapons we should have a high rate of return and too many times I have seen us just get stuffed on those plays. That is something that sticks in my crawl all season. You gotta have a way to get 1 yrd at a consistent rate regardless of your opponent. It seems we have been less than stellar at this regardless of who we are playing.

[AppSt94]

The one problem that continues to bug me is the 3rd and 4th and short situations. We don't seem to have a consistent answer. I would expect with our weapons we should have a high rate of return and too many times I have seen us just get stuffed on those plays. That is something that sticks in my crawl all season. You gotta have a way to get 1 yrd at a consistent rate regardless of your opponent. It seems we have been less than stellar at this regardless of who we are playing.

Very true. I would imagine that the defensive alignment on a 3rd and 1 is a bit different than on a third and say 4. It isn’t about creating a running lane, rather it about creating a push. Unfortunately, the back can’t sit in the backfield and wait to see who wins the battle. The play call is for a gap and you hope that your guy manning that gap wins.

[appstate5]

Overall I am much more pleased this year vs last year. My grade for Ponce would be a "B". As previously mentioned not always happy with the 3rd down play-calling and not happy with Noel starting the game over Cam. I have been screaming for the tight ends to be more incorporated in the passing game and that seems to now be happening. I am still waiting on the RB's to be involved in the passing game. Do we not have a running back who can catch a pass? I've seen some of the other teams really utilize their backs. Get Cam and Noel out in the flat with room to make guys miss. On 2nd thought, I'll upgrade that grade to a B+.

It’s possible that the backs are primarily used for protection.

True, but we talk about our team speed. A short 10 yard pass out of the flat to a RB shouldn't take long for protection to hold up.

[appstate5]

Overall I am much more pleased this year vs last year. My grade for Ponce would be a "B". As previously mentioned not always happy with the 3rd down play-calling and not happy with Noel starting the game over Cam. I have been screaming for the tight ends to be more incorporated in the passing game and that seems to now be happening. I am still waiting on the RB's to be involved in the passing game. Do we not have a running back who can catch a pass? I've seen some of the other teams really utilize their backs. Get Cam and Noel out in the flat with room to make guys miss. On 2nd thought, I'll upgrade that grade to a B+.

What about this year’s offense is more pleasurable to you? Based on your commentary regarding the RBs and TEs, this was an issue last year as well. Same record through 9 games, virtually the same offensive production so what makes this more pleasurable. Is it the balance?

Definitely more balanced but what I really like are the shots downfield.

[AppSt94]

Overall I am much more pleased this year vs last year. My grade for Ponce would be a "B". As previously mentioned not always happy with the 3rd down play-calling and not happy with Noel starting the game over Cam. I have been screaming for the tight ends to be more incorporated in the passing game and that seems to now be happening. I am still waiting on the RB's to be involved in the passing game. Do we not have a running back who can catch a pass? I've seen some of the other teams really utilize their backs. Get Cam and Noel out in the flat with room to make guys miss. On 2nd thought, I'll upgrade that grade to a B+.

It’s possible that the backs are primarily used for protection.

True, but we talk about our team speed. A short 10 yard pass out of the flat to a RB shouldn't take long for protection to hold up.

What you are saying is somewhat true. The thing is, that’s only possible if you don’t have to account fo a free rusher that needs to be picked up by the back. If there are six men in the box and you have five to block, it is a play possibility. If you have seven in the box, not so much. It’s a good question to ask Ponce what he sees as options when he has a single back set with a six man front. He probably sees it has a good run option. We have tried some designed plays to the backs this year without great success.

For me, we have great success with Spurlin lining up in the H back role on the goal line. Why not put him in on short yardage third downs around mid field? I’m sure Ponce has answers to these questions.

[AppSt94]

Overall I am much more pleased this year vs last year. My grade for Ponce would be a "B". As previously mentioned not always happy with the 3rd down play-calling and not happy with Noel starting the game over Cam. I have been screaming for the tight ends to be more incorporated in the passing game and that seems to now be happening. I am still waiting on the RB's to be involved in the passing game. Do we not have a running back who can catch a pass? I've seen some of the other teams really utilize their backs. Get Cam and Noel out in the flat with room to make guys miss. On 2nd thought, I'll upgrade that grade to a B+.

What about this year’s offense is more pleasurable to you? Based on your commentary regarding the RBs and TEs, this was an issue last year as well. Same record through 9 games, virtually the same offensive production so what makes this more pleasurable. Is it the balance?

Definitely more balanced but what I really like are the shots downfield.

When they work, they are great, and you have to take them to keep the safeties out of the box, but it feels like we aren’t using them judiciously. Too many times they are being made on corner coverage with safety help. The ones that worked were the one on ones. But I agree with you.

[Black Saturday]

Is anyone worried if satt doesnt get canned that he’ll call up ponce? I’m not that worried because I think loserville fans will revolt if he brings in another app guy.

If he makes a move to somewhere like duke, I could see it.

Why would Satt get canned? They have been fairly competitive every time I've watched and no word of him being involved with a burner phone? His issue is not having quite enough Jimmy's and Joe's....yet. He inherited into a 2 win program.

[fjblair]

I don't have the stats right in front of me, but I think third down conversion rates should also include fourth down conversion rates. App has gone for it on a good number of fourth downs in recent games and converted.

That's kind of double-edged. On one side, we are going for it on 4th, because we failed on 3rd. However, there are times when Ponce knows that Clark is going to go for it on 4th if we have the right "down and distance" and is calling plays to get us in that situation.

Looking at the last 4 games:
Louisiana, we were 0/11 on third down (we had some drops), but 2/2 on 4th.
Coastal, we were 5/11 on third, but 0/2 on 4th
ULM, we were 5/15, but 4/6 on 4th
A-State, we were 8/15, then 2/2

Through nine games, we have went over 500 yards of total offense in 5 games and over 460 yards in 7.
While we have had some defensive/ST scores, we have gone over 50 points once, over 40 four times and scored over 30 seven times.

I'd still like to see us use our backs a little more in the passing game (we've completed 10 passes to our backs, 18 to our TE's and 152 passes to our WR's.)

Ponce, also has a different challenge compared to recent play callers in that Chase Brice is a more accurate pocket passer, but defenses do not have to respect the QB run at the same level as they did in previous year's. We have progressed the offense more through the season as we seem to be using more motion, misdirection. and our being more aggressive in our play calling.
However, with a new OC, a new to the program QB and that kind of production, I would think the grade would be A-/B+

Do we even run a wheel route anymore? Not complaining, just curious since it used to be a feature of our offense in past years. I like what Ponce has done with this offense.

[WASU 93]

I don't have the stats right in front of me, but I think third down conversion rates should also include fourth down conversion rates. App has gone for it on a good number of fourth downs in recent games and converted.

That's kind of double-edged. On one side, we are going for it on 4th, because we failed on 3rd. However, there are times when Ponce knows that Clark is going to go for it on 4th if we have the right "down and distance" and is calling plays to get us in that situation.

Looking at the last 4 games:
Louisiana, we were 0/11 on third down (we had some drops), but 2/2 on 4th.
Coastal, we were 5/11 on third, but 0/2 on 4th
ULM, we were 5/15, but 4/6 on 4th
A-State, we were 8/15, then 2/2

Through nine games, we have went over 500 yards of total offense in 5 games and over 460 yards in 7.
While we have had some defensive/ST scores, we have gone over 50 points once, over 40 four times and scored over 30 seven times.

I'd still like to see us use our backs a little more in the passing game (we've completed 10 passes to our backs, 18 to our TE's and 152 passes to our WR's.)

Ponce, also has a different challenge compared to recent play callers in that Chase Brice is a more accurate pocket passer, but defenses do not have to respect the QB run at the same level as they did in previous year's. We have progressed the offense more through the season as we seem to be using more motion, misdirection. and our being more aggressive in our play calling.
However, with a new OC, a new to the program QB and that kind of production, I would think the grade would be A-/B+

Do we even run a wheel route anymore? Not complaining, just curious since it used to be a feature of our offense in past years. I like what Ponce has done with this offense.

I haven't seen it. It would seem like getting Noel matched up against an LB on a wheel route could be very successful. Also, Peoples on a screen pass could be very dangerous. We certainly do use our backs for protection on third down, which is fine. I'd just like to see us target the RB's 4-5 times a game on designed routes.