How many games can teams lose?

[AppState00_01]

Obviously we’re going to be undefeated but hypothetically I think we could lose to Clemson and one conference game and as long as we win conference championship game, we’d probably be a ranked conference champion and would have a good shot to make playoffs depending on what AAC and MWC do.

In that scenario, likely need Boise State with 3 losses, they have a nice head start in the polls, and nice strength of schedule unless Oregon State and Washington State turn out to be average G5 teams.

Head start in the polls doesn't mean anything, because the polls aren't a factor in selecting the CFP.

I agree to an extent, I still think they have a perceived advantage, call it the polls, media, etc. Also, still think they are still “the” G5 team on the national stage. Our head to head with them will go a long way in changing perception. Still about winning games and looking good doing it.

[AppWyo]

We need Georgia Southern to beat Boise State next weekend...

[AppState00_01]

We need Georgia Southern to beat Boise State next weekend...

I will definitely be watching that one. I would not put it past them. Long flight from Boise. The spread is 13 right now

[AtlAppMan]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.

Let me be very blunt, right now I would bet you if we run the table we WILL make CFP. That is not out of our hands. If we lose to anybody on our schedule it starts slipping out of our hands.

1. You win your conference
2. You beat another likely top G5 (maybe top in CUSA) team
3. Have a Marquis top 25 win
4. We will be ranked fairly high at end of season

The more we lose the further away it slips.

[AppState00_01]

If we go undefeated, really good chance of hosting a playoff game. Hopeful but so hard to do.

[AtlAppMan]

Repeat 2019 and not stump our toe.

[AppStFan1]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.

Let me be very blunt, right now I would bet you if we run the table we WILL make CFP. That is not out of our hands. If we lose to anybody on our schedule it starts slipping out of our hands.

1. You win your conference
2. You beat another likely top G5 (maybe top in CUSA) team
3. Have a Marquis top 25 win
4. We will be ranked fairly high at end of season

The more we lose the further away it slips.

What if we go undefeated but Clemson loses 5 games, Liberty finishes 9-3, nobody else in Sun Belt has 10 wins? Do you think we would get in over undefeated Boise State with a win over a top 3 Big Ten team in Oregon? I don't think they beat Oregon but if they have a strong win over them and Clemson turned out to be weak that could be a discussion. I really think it depends on strength of schedule at the end as well.

[asumba95]

The math is simple. Run the table and we’re in.

[AppSt94]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.

Let me be very blunt, right now I would bet you if we run the table we WILL make CFP. That is not out of our hands. If we lose to anybody on our schedule it starts slipping out of our hands.

1. You win your conference
2. You beat another likely top G5 (maybe top in CUSA) team
3. Have a Marquis top 25 win
4. We will be ranked fairly high at end of season

The more we lose the further away it slips.

What if Boise St and or Memphis both go undefeated as well? As I said, here and in earlier threads, there is a level of subjectivity to who is higher ranked. We can sit here and hypothesize until the end of November, but there just aren’t any guarantees. Control what you can control and see if it shakes out.

[AppStFan1]

The math is simple. Run the table and we’re in.

Fans of App, Boise State, Liberty, Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA are all saying the same thing. It is possible that 3 of those teams go undefeated. If 2 or 3 of those teams go undefeated, and we are among them, what makes you say we get in over the others?

We could be the only undefeated team at the end of the season and our schedule turns out to be strong but the season is long and a lot can change. We saw A&M fall apart after we beat them. If we beat Clemson we really need them to finish strong in the ACC, Liberty to win CUSA, ECU to improve, and for multiple SBC teams considered strong. I think Boise, Tulane, and Memphis all have a little stronger schedule than we do now but that could definitely change.

[AppStFan1]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.

Let me be very blunt, right now I would bet you if we run the table we WILL make CFP. That is not out of our hands. If we lose to anybody on our schedule it starts slipping out of our hands.

1. You win your conference
2. You beat another likely top G5 (maybe top in CUSA) team
3. Have a Marquis top 25 win
4. We will be ranked fairly high at end of season

The more we lose the further away it slips.

What if Boise St and or Memphis both go undefeated as well? As I said, here and in earlier threads, there is a level of subjectivity to who is higher ranked. We can sit here and hypothesize until the end of November, but there just aren’t any guarantees. Control what you can control and see if it shakes out.

So true. We just need to go 1-0 every week and see how it plays out. This year is wide open. I looked back at the preseason polls for the last 5 years and this is the only year in that period where we don't have a G5 team ranked in the preseason top 25.

2024- None
2023- Tulane
2022- Cincinnati and Houston (now in Big 12)
2021- Coastal Carolina and Louisiana
2020- Cincinnati and UCF (now in Big 12)

[AtlAppMan]

The math is simple. Run the table and we’re in.

Fans of App, Boise State, Liberty, Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA are all saying the same thing. It is possible that 3 of those teams go undefeated. If 2 or 3 of those teams go undefeated, and we are among them, what makes you say we get in over the others?

We could be the only undefeated team at the end of the season and our schedule turns out to be strong but the season is long and a lot can change. We saw A&M fall apart after we beat them. If we beat Clemson we really need them to finish strong in the ACC, Liberty to win CUSA, ECU to improve, and for multiple SBC teams considered strong. I think Boise, Tulane, and Memphis all have a little stronger schedule than we do now but that could definitely change.

If multiple teams are undefeated then you better have style points. We better kick the crap out of every opponent we can. Leave no doubt.

[AppStFan1]

The math is simple. Run the table and we’re in.

Fans of App, Boise State, Liberty, Tulane, Memphis, and UTSA are all saying the same thing. It is possible that 3 of those teams go undefeated. If 2 or 3 of those teams go undefeated, and we are among them, what makes you say we get in over the others?

We could be the only undefeated team at the end of the season and our schedule turns out to be strong but the season is long and a lot can change. We saw A&M fall apart after we beat them. If we beat Clemson we really need them to finish strong in the ACC, Liberty to win CUSA, ECU to improve, and for multiple SBC teams considered strong. I think Boise, Tulane, and Memphis all have a little stronger schedule than we do now but that could definitely change.

If multiple teams are undefeated then you better have style points. We better kick the crap out of every opponent we can. Leave no doubt.

Exactly. My hope is that Shawn puts his foot on the gas a little more and we don't call the dogs off in the second half until we are at least up by 30+ going into the 4th quarter.

[AppSt94]

I can hear it now. “App goes 13-0, but we didn’t win by enough to make the CFP. Shawn needs to go.”

[EastHallApp]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.

Let me be very blunt, right now I would bet you if we run the table we WILL make CFP. That is not out of our hands. If we lose to anybody on our schedule it starts slipping out of our hands.

1. You win your conference
2. You beat another likely top G5 (maybe top in CUSA) team
3. Have a Marquis top 25 win
4. We will be ranked fairly high at end of season

The more we lose the further away it slips.

What if Boise St and or Memphis both go undefeated as well? As I said, here and in earlier threads, there is a level of subjectivity to who is higher ranked. We can sit here and hypothesize until the end of November, but there just aren’t any guarantees. Control what you can control and see if it shakes out.

Then both/all would likely make the playoffs.

It's a different world than the 4-team field. 13-0 with a win at Clemson is not getting left out of the top 12 IMO.

[AppSt94]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.

Let me be very blunt, right now I would bet you if we run the table we WILL make CFP. That is not out of our hands. If we lose to anybody on our schedule it starts slipping out of our hands.

1. You win your conference
2. You beat another likely top G5 (maybe top in CUSA) team
3. Have a Marquis top 25 win
4. We will be ranked fairly high at end of season

The more we lose the further away it slips.

What if Boise St and or Memphis both go undefeated as well? As I said, here and in earlier threads, there is a level of subjectivity to who is higher ranked. We can sit here and hypothesize until the end of November, but there just aren’t any guarantees. Control what you can control and see if it shakes out.

Then both/all would likely make the playoffs.

It's a different world than the 4-team field. 13-0 with a win at Clemson is not getting left out of the top 12 IMO.

They will take Vanderbilt before they take more than 1 G5.

[Bigdaddyg1]

Interesting takes but I included losing 1 game intentionally to ignore the undefeated part. Going 13-0 is a completely different story. I am interested in every team who is eligible for the 12 team playoff format. We know that there will likely be 4 SEC teams at least with probably two of them with 2 losses. The conference champ is in as is the runner up because that team won’t be 8-4. There will be at least 3 Big 10 with the same deal as the SEC. It’s really hard to imagine two G5’s going unbeaten. I think the obvious answer for us is that we can lose to Clemson and get in at 12-1. The secondary question is what bowl would a 12-1 G5 play in if left out of the playoff?

[AppSt94]

Going 12-1 with a lone loss to Clemson only assures that we have leverage over Liberty, the presumed CUSA champ. Outside of that you will need outside help. Should UTSA win the AAC then you could look at results against common opponent (ECU). Miami (Oh) has a good team and some think that the can beat ND. Boise has to play Oregon and Washington. If they are 11-2 with those two losses they could still get the bid. Memphis has FSU. So going 12-1 isn’t guaranteed access to the CFP.

[AppStFan1]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.

I had not seen the FPI so I did not realize they had us at 11-1 but our SOS is very low so that is not too surprising. My personal expectation is 10-2 because we usually lose to someone we should not lose to. Like I have said on here before we just need to go 11-1 or 12-0 and then worry about the playoff because anything less than that and we have no shot.

[EastHallApp]

As it relates to App. They need to win the games that they are supposed to. The FPI says that App is favored to win 11 of those 12. Win the conference and put your record up against the other G5 champs. Beating the presumed CUSA champ makes your case to get in above that Other than that, it’s out of their hands.

Let me be very blunt, right now I would bet you if we run the table we WILL make CFP. That is not out of our hands. If we lose to anybody on our schedule it starts slipping out of our hands.

1. You win your conference
2. You beat another likely top G5 (maybe top in CUSA) team
3. Have a Marquis top 25 win
4. We will be ranked fairly high at end of season

The more we lose the further away it slips.

What if Boise St and or Memphis both go undefeated as well? As I said, here and in earlier threads, there is a level of subjectivity to who is higher ranked. We can sit here and hypothesize until the end of November, but there just aren’t any guarantees. Control what you can control and see if it shakes out.

Then both/all would likely make the playoffs.

It's a different world than the 4-team field. 13-0 with a win at Clemson is not getting left out of the top 12 IMO.

They will take Vanderbilt before they take more than 1 G5.

I understand the skepticism, but it's kind of baseless at this point. We don't know what they'd do in that scenario.

Besides, we're debating hypotheticals that are highly unlikely to actually occur.